Silver Analysis Rise 500 percent, Silver price predicted $165 in 2015

Silver will rise over 500% in three years, based on technical and cyclical analysis rather than a reaction to the accommodative economic situation in the US. The precious metal is about to enter a bull market, which will take it from a current price of $32 an ounce to $165 an ounce by the end of October 2015.

Silver demand is more purely related to industrial applications, so is more dependent on the state of the global economy and demand for the metal in growing economies. Nonetheless, as a risk asset, its course next year will be linked with the outcome of the impending fiscal cliff and global economy.

So what has fuelled silver’s recent strong performance, and can it really continue its exceptional rally?

‘The main reason silver has done so well is that people are looking at one of the better ways to play the move by the Fed to put in place an aggressive third round of quantitative easing,’ said Nick Brooks, head of research and investment strategy at ETF Securities.

‘So in the run up to, and in anticipation of, the QE3 announcement, silver rallied strongly. Investors have correctly looked at silver as one of the better ways to play an increase in risk appetite and an increase in economic growth – with silver benefiting from these more so than gold.’

However, despite the seeming correlation in performance, the fundamentals driving the performance of both metals differ substantially. Gold typically has an inverse relationship with the US dollar, which is why the depreciation of the currency on the back of QE saw the metal rise.

‘To the extent the US Congress and Obama come up with a compromise, investors will be more keen to buy cyclical assets – and silver is near the top of the list,’ said Brooks. ‘Also, as long as the US and China continue to recover, silver will perform well.’

However, he warns if the fiscal cliff is not avoided, there will be ‘a big correction’ in risk assets and silver ‘will be hit badly’.

Silver, often viewed as a leveraged play on gold, also tends to be volatile, having exhibited an average annualised volatility of 35% over the last 10 years. ‘It’s fair to say it’s likely to remain volatile next year,’ said Brooks

While 2012 has proved a stellar year for the silver price, questions hang over whether the precious metal can replicate this performance and continue to outshine gold as we move into the new year.

Over the course of 2012, the silver price has risen by nearly 20%, outpacing gold’s 10% rise.

While gold is typically viewed as a safe haven and alternative currency, silver is viewed as more of a risk asset, making its price more sensitive to spells of risk aversion. Conversely, this also means silver is likely to rise further than gold when investors are in risk-on mode.

Indeed, some analysts are backing the latter scenario in the view that monetary policy will remain loose for the foreseeable future, especially following the re-election of Barack Obama in the US and the possibility Ben Bernanke will remain chairman of the Federal Reserve. Such a setting could be a boon for risk assets, including silver.

So far it has risen from $8 an ounce in 2008 to around $32 an ounce, having peaked at $50 in 2011.

‘We expect silver to continue to dramatically outperform gold as the bull market in precious metals is by no means over,’ said Williams. ‘Our forecast for gold is for a rise to $2,500 but that is small beer to what we expect to see in silver. ‘Also within our FTSE 100 equity fund, the Elite Charteris Income fund, we have made Fresnillo [the world’s largest Silver miner & FTSE 100 constituent] the largest holding,’ he says.

Global Coffee Supplies Increase support Prices

Global coffee supplies increase support coffee prices after Vietnam seek higher prices after faster in harvest. Curbs on sales from Vietnam may support prices as global supplies increase. Farmers worldwide will gather 56 million 60- kilogram bags of robusta in the 2012-2013 year, up from 53.3 million bags a year earlier, the International Coffee Organization estimates. Robusta has tumbled 13 percent since the end of September when harvesting began in Vietnam.

Robusta is harvested mainly in Asia and parts of Africa, while arabica is grown in Latin America. Robusta for delivery in January rose 0.8 percent to $1,888 yesterday on NYSE Liffe, while arabica for March increased 1.7 percent to $1.495 a pound on ICE Futures U.S. in New York. Robusta’s discount to arabica has shrunk to 63.86 cents from 145 cents at end-2011.

Farmers have gathered about 75 percent of the crop, or about 1.1 million metric tons, and sold 360,000 tons, according to the medians of seven trader and shipper estimates compiled by Bloomberg. The harvest is set to drop 12 percent to 1.45 million tons from a record 1.65 million tons last season, the survey shows. Robusta traded in London may climb 14 percent to $2,150 a ton by the end of June, a separate survey shows.

Farmers have the financial resources to limit sales and are waiting for domestic prices to reach 40,000 dong ($1.92) a kilogram, Luong Van Tu, chairman of Vietnam Coffee & Cocoa Association, said in a Dec. 6 interview in Ho Chi Minh City. Prices are around 38,000 dong to 39,000 dong and sometimes lower, he said. Farmers have been able to borrow at least 50 million dong each without collateral since the start of the year because of government support, he said.

Index Sugar Prices Dropped 2010-2012

Index of sugar prices dropped to 274.4 points from 288.2 points in October, to the lowest level since August 2010. The FAO dairy-price index rose to 195 points from 194 in October, the highest level since March, the data showed. The index for meat prices dropped to 174.7 points from 176.

World grain production may drop to 2.28 billion metric tons this year from 2.35 billion tons the previous season, the FAO wrote in a separate report. The outlook was cut by 2.3 million tons from a month ago on reduced estimates for the global wheat harvest.

Grain consumption is forecast to slip to 2.31 billion tons from 2.32 billion tons, while global grain stocks are predicted to fall to 494.7 million tons at the end of the 2012-13 season from 519.5 million tons a year earlier. The outlook for ending stocks was cut by 2.7 million tons.

Farmers across the world may harvest 659.4 million tons of wheat in 2012 from 699.4 million tons last year, the FAO said, cutting its estimate by 1.8 million tons.

The world crop of coarse grains, including corn and barley, may slip to 1.14 billion tons from 1.17 billion tons a year earlier, while rice production is expected to increase in 2012-13 to 486.8 million tons from 482.7 million tons.

Index 55 Food Fell, World Food Cost Slip

55 food items index fell from 214.1 to 210.9 in October 2012 according FAO. The cost of oils and fats remained near the lowest since September 2010. World food costs slipped for a second month in November as prices for oilseeds and cooking oils as well as sugar fell to the lowest in two years, the United Nations’ Food & Agriculture Organization said.

Global food-import bill may fall 9.7 percent this year to $1.14 trillion from a record $1.26 trillion in 2011 on lower costs for freight and reduced spending on vegetables and fruits, grains and sugar, the FAO forecast last month.

The November index for fats and oils dropped to 200.4 points from 206.4 the previous month, to the lowest level since September 2010, the FAO reported. Palm oil futures in Malaysia dropped 5.1 percent last month, while Chicago soybeans declined 7.1 percent.

The FAO’s gauge of world grain prices declined to 255.6 points from 259.5. Wheat prices fell as concerns about an imminent export restriction by Ukraine receded, according to the FAO.

Palm oil futures have dropped 24 percent since the end of August as reserves increased in Indonesia and Malaysia, the biggest producers, weighing on oil-crop prices. Use of the oil is expected to climb to compensate for a shortage of other vegetable oils, according to Hamburg-based researcher Oil World.

“The main driving factor remains abundant palm oil production, which, combined with weak world import demand, has led to further build-ups in inventories,” the FAO wrote in today’s report. “Except for dairy, international prices of all the commodity groups included in the index fell in November.”

List of Top Commodity Suppliers

List of top commodity suppliers include agriculture raw materials, beverages, cereals, energy, fruits, seafoot, meat, metals, sugar, vegetable oil and protein meals.











Company: Chargeurs

Location: Paris, France









Company: Plains Cotton Cooperative Association

Location: Lubbock, Texas, India

Estimated Production: 8 million yards per year (Source)









Company: Chargeurs

Location: Paris, France









Company: Tyson Fresh Meats (formerly IBP Inc)

Location: Denison, Iowa, USA









Company: Thai Rubber Latex Corporation

Location: Thailand

Estimated Production: 100000 tons per year (Source)









Company: Archer Daniels Midland

Location: Decatur, Illinois, USA









Company: Tata Coffee

Location: Bangalore, India

Estimated Production: 10000 metric tonnes per year (Source)









Company: Tata Coffee

Location: Bangalore, India

Estimated Production: 10000 metric tonnes per year (Source)









Company: Unilever (Lipton)

Location: London, UK









Company: ABB Grain

Location: Melbourne, Australia









Company: Riceland Foods

Location: Stuttgart, Arkansas

Estimated Production: 2.5 million metric tonnes per year (Source)









Company: Coal India Limited

Location: Kolkata, India

Estimated Production: 361 million tonnes per year (Source)









Company: BHP Billiton Energy Coal South Africa

Location: Johannesburg, South Africa

Estimated Production: 48 million tonnes per year (Source)









Company: Saudi Aramco

Location: Dhahran, Saudi Arabia

Estimated Production: 8.5 million barrels per day (Source)









Company: Saudi Aramco

Location: Dhahran, Saudi Arabia

Estimated Production: 8.5 million barrels per day (Source)









Company: Saudi Aramco

Location: Dhahran, Saudi Arabia

Estimated Production: 8.5 million barrels per day (Source)









Company: Saudi Aramco

Location: Dhahran, Saudi Arabia

Estimated Production: 8.5 million barrels per day (Source)









Company: Royal Dutch Shell

Location: Hague, Netherlands

Estimated Production: 3.5 million tonnes per year (Source)









Company: Gazprom

Location: Moscow, Russia

Estimated Production: 540 billion cubic meters (BCM) per year (Source)









Company: Gazprom

Location: Moscow, Russia

Estimated Production: 540 billion cubic meters (BCM) per year (Source)









Company: Dole Food Co.

Location: Westlake Village, CA, USA









Company: Cutrale

Location: Brazil









Company: Tyson Fresh Meats (formerly IBP Inc)

Location: Denison, Iowa, USA









Company: Pilgrim's Pride Corp.

Location: Pittsburg, Texas, US

Estimated Production: 9 billion pounds per year (Source)









Company: Tyson Fresh Meats (formerly IBP Inc)

Location: Denison, Iowa, USA









Company: UC RUSAL

Location: Moscow, Russia

Estimated Production: 4.2 million tonnes per year (Source)









Company: Glencore

Location: Baar, Switzerland









Company: Alcoa

Location: Pittsburgh, PA









Company: Rio Tinto Alcan

Location: Montreal, Quebec









Company: Codelco

Location: Santiago, Chile

Estimated Production: 1.66 million tonnes per year (Source)









Company: Companhia Vale Do Rio Doce

Location: Rio De Janerio, Brazil

Estimated Production: 301.7 million tonnes per year (Source)









Company: Hindustan Zinc

Location: Udaipur, India

Estimated Production: 1 million tonnes per year (Source)









Company: MMC Norilsk Nickel

Location: Moscow, Russia

Estimated Production: 244000 tonnes per year (Source)









Company: Yunnan Tin Co

Location: Yunnan, China

Estimated Production: 20000 tonnes per year (Source)









Company: Cameco Corporation

Location: Saskatoon, Canada

Estimated Production: 22 million pounds per year (Source)









Company: Nyrstar

Location: London, UK









Company: Glencore

Location: Baar, Switzerland









Company: Pan Fish-Marine Harvest

Location: Oslo, Norway

Estimated Production: 100000 tonnes per year (Source)









Company: Centralproteina Prima

Location: Brussels, Belgium

Estimated Production: 300 tonnes per day (Source)









Company: Südzucker AG

Location: Manheim, Germany

Estimated Production: 4.6 million tonnes per year (Source)









Company: Südzucker AG

Location: Manheim, Germany

Estimated Production: 4.6 million tonnes per year (Source)









Company: Südzucker AG

Location: Manheim, Germany

Estimated Production: 4.6 million tonnes per year (Source)









Company: Tecnologica de Alimentos (TASA)

Location: San Isidro, Peru

Estimated Production: 5.8 million tonnes per year (Source)









Company: Hojiblanca and Cordoliva

Location: Málaga, Spain

Estimated Production: 8000 tonnes per year (Source)









Company: Sime Darby

Location: Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia









Company: Archer Daniels Midland

Location: Decatur, Illinois, USA









Company: Archer Daniels Midland

Location: Decatur, Illinois, USA









Company: Archer Daniels Midland

Location: Decatur, Illinois, USA









Company: Cargill

Location: Minnetonka, Minnesota, USA

Agricultural Raw Materials

Coarse Wool

Cotton

Fine Wool

Hides

Rubber

Beverages

Cocoa beans

Coffee, Other Mild Arabicas

Coffee, Robusta

Tea

Cereals

Barley

Rice

Energy

Coal, Australian thermal coal

Coal, South African export price

Crude Oil (petroleum)

Crude Oil (petroleum); Dated Brent

Crude Oil (petroleum); Dubai Fateh

Crude Oil (petroleum); West Texas Intermediate

Indonesian Liquified Natural Gas

Natural Gas

Russian Natural Gas

Fruits

Bananas

Oranges

Meat

Beef

Poultry (chicken)

Swine (pork)

Metals

Aluminum

Aluminum

Aluminum

Aluminum

Copper, grade A cathode

Iron Ore

Lead

Nickel

Tin

Uranium

Zinc

Zinc

Seafood

Fish (salmon)

Shrimp

Sugar

Sugar

Sugar, European import price

Sugar, U.S. import price

Vegetable Oils and Protein Meal

Fishmeal

Olive Oil, extra virgin

Palm oil

Rapeseed Oil

Soybean Meal

Soybean Oil

Sunflower oil

World Cotton Market end Nov 2012

Here are tables of cotton market in 29 and 30 November 2012 compare with same date in last year in 2011.

Current Prices

Prices on same
Date last year

81.65

98.85
(29-11-2011)

71.75
73.35

92.69
92.75
(29.11.2011)

18,902

19,052
(29.11.2011)

6,424
6,005
75.86

5,810
5,430
75.25

Cotlook Index (Cents/lb) ‘A’ Index	New York Cotton Market Contract No. 2 (cents/lb)‘Dec’2012 ‘Mar’2013 (29.11.2012)	China Cotton Index (29.11.2012) Yuan/M. Ton	Karachi Cotton Association (Spot Rate) Ex-gin Price (29.11.2012) Rs. per 40 kgs. Rs. per maund (Equivalent Cents/lb.)

World cotton msrket in 29 November 2012 compare with cotton prices in 29 November 2011

Current Prices

Prices on same
Date last year

81.65

99.00
(28-11-2011)

71.23
72.63

91.30
91.35
(28.11.2011)

18,891

19,054
(28.11.2011)

6,371
5,955
75.46

5,730
5,330
74.03

Cotlook Index (Cents/lb) ‘A’ Index	New York Cotton Market Contract No. 2 (cents/lb)‘Dec’2012 ‘Mar’2013 (28.11.2012)	China Cotton Index (28.11.2012) Yuan/M. Ton	Karachi Cotton Association (Spot Rate) Ex-gin Price (28.11.2012) Rs. per 40 kgs. Rs. per maund (Equivalent Cents/lb.)

Grain Prices Support by Positive Macro Data and USDA Export Sales

Grains prices started the week on a firm note, supported by more positive macro data and USDA export sales data for the week-ending 15 November (released a day later than usual, on 23 November, due to the US holiday) showing strength, especially as corn and wheat export sales came in above expectations, having posted a poor performance so far.

Monday’s weekly USDA crop ratings data showed that 33% of the US winter wheat crop was rated good/excellent, down 1% from the previous week and well below year-ago levels of 52%. Meanwhile, 26% of the crop is rated poor/very poor, up 2% from the prior week and double the year-ago level of 13%.

Southern Hemisphere weather concerns are also supporting wheat prices, with excessive rain in Argentina and Australia.

Price gains in soybeans were muted in comparison but rose due to concerns about South American production (which is being forecast at a record high) and strong export demand for US soybeans and soy oil.

Prices rose further through the week, led by the strength in wheat prices, which rose to two-week highs, underpinned by weather fears.

Corn prices moved higher this week as well with US export sales coming in well above expectations. However, ethanol production continued to trend lower.

The latest EIA data showed that US ethanol output in the week ending 23 November was 803Kbpd, posting a 7Kbpd fall from the previous week.