Rubber Commodity market and trading in Asia

Rubber has soared about 20 percent on the Tokyo Commodity Exchange this year as the wetter-than-normal weather lowered output, tightening supply at a time when stockpiles in China, the largest buyer, have dropped 71 percent from the year?s high.

Futures in Shanghai surged as much as 3.5 percent to 33,190 yuan ($4,975) a metric ton today, nearing the record of 33,320 yuan reached on Oct. 26.

The flooding across Thailand has killed 107 people and damaged more than 3 percent of farmland, the Department of Disaster Prevention and Mitigation said today. Aside from Songkhla, two other cash-rubber markets in Thailand?s south remained open today, the research institute said.

A ?shortage of supply could worsen as floods in Thailand and Malaysia disrupted tapping activities, affecting output,? said Ker Chung Yang, a commodity analyst at Phillip Futures. ?Firm fundamentals could push prices? higher, he said.

Thai Forecast

Rubber output in Thailand may decline 4.1 percent in the fourth quarter to 930,000 tons, Luckchai Kittipol, President of the Thai Rubber Association, said on Nov. 1.

Floods and heavy rains have also affected Malaysia and Vietnam, the third- and fourth-largest exporters.

Malaysia evacuated more than 19,000 people in the northern states of Kedah and Perlis because of floods, the Star newspaper reported today, citing Padang Terap District Police Chief Ku Yaacob Ku Hamad and Perlis Chief Minister Md Isa Sabu.

Floods in the central provinces of Vietnam have left eight people dead and six missing in the past six days, damaging 6,722 houses and 17,891 hectares (44,210 acres) of rice and other crop land, according to a statement on the government?s website.

Output from India, the fourth-biggest producer, declined 7.6 percent to 82,000 tons in October due to excess rain, the state-run Rubber Board said on Nov. 2. Lower output boosted imports 81 percent to 18,148 tons, it said.

Global production this year is unlikely to increase more than 5.3 percent to 9.4 million tons, compared with a previous forecast for a 6.3 percent rise, the Association of Natural Rubber Producing Countries has said. A further cut in the output forecast is expected, the group has said.

Natural-rubber imports by China may surge 42 percent in the fourth quarter, bringing total purchases this year to 1.68 million tons compared with 1.59 million last year, the group said. China accounts for more than 33 percent of global demand.

?With such underlying fundamentals, I would suggest Tocom rubber will break a significant psychological resistance of 340 yen soon,? said Phillip?s Ker. The contract ended on Nov. 22 at 331.90 yen per kilogram.