China and Japan Outlook in Rice, Cotton, Oil and Sugar 2011 to 2015

China is also focused on complete self-sufficiency in rice commodity, although supply of short-grain Japonica rice, the staple food for the world's most populous country, is very tight, Mr Wei said.

"According to our estimates, Japonica rice demand will rise by more than 12.5 million tonnes by 2015, and the contradiction between supply and demand will be significant," Mr Wei said.

Mr Han said output of Japonica rice rose by more than four million tonnes this year, without giving any comparative figures.

Japonica rice is grown in northern China but its popularity has spread south into areas where long-grain rice is grown.

China will stabilise its overall grain production capacity at above 540 million tonnes, said Mr Wei. That implies little further production growth, since grain output rose 2.9 per cent to 546.41 million tonnes in 2010.

"The less price-elastic growth in grain consumption is an inevitable trend, and the situation of supply exceeding demand will never return," Mr Wei said.

He said it was also hard to guarantee adequate supplies of cotton, vegetable oils and sugar but it has some aggressive targets under the country's twelfth five year plan, which runs from 2011 to 2015.

China aims to have oilseeds output at above 35 million tonnes, with self-sufficiency at above 40 per cent, while cotton output is targeted at above seven million tonnes, Mr Wei said. China should guarantee sugar self-sufficency above 90 per cent, with output of sugar crops at around 140 million tonnes.

Oilseed output is expected to be above 31.5 million tonnes in 2010, roughly the same as last year despite increased acreage, while cotton output in 2010 is forecast to fall 2.8 per cent to 6.2 million tonnes, he said.

Mr Han also said China's meat output would rise 2.6 per cent to 78.5 million tonnes this year, while egg production would rise 1.5 per cent to 27.6 million tonnes and dairy output would increase 0.2 per cent to 37.4 million tonnes.

The number of hogs slaughtered was up 1.5 per cent at 655 million head, he said. Low prices of hogs in the first half of this year had prompted the government to support the market by temporarily stockpiling 170,000 tonnes of pork, he said.