Commodity exclusives Gold Price Gain, Agriculture Emerging Market Demand

Gold Rebounds From One-Week Low on Japan, Libya, Inflation, gold gained from a one-week low in London as Japan?s nuclear crisis, the conflict in Libya, concerns about rising inflation and a weaker dollar spurred demand for an alternative investment.

Australia Tops Global Stock Gains Since 1900: Chart of the Day, Australia, the best performing equity market across the last 111 years, will probably come more into line with global peers because emerging market demand for its abundant raw materials may already have been priced in.

Economic events, agriculture reports:

Forecast Prior Time

(N.Y.)

Advance Retail Sales MAR 0.5% 1.0% 8:30

Retail Sales Less Autos MAR 0.7% 0.7% 8:30

Retail Sales Ex Auto&Gas MAR 0.5% 0.6% 8:30

Business Inventories FEB 0.8% 0.9% 10:00

JOLTS Job Openings FEB 2760 10:00

FED?s Beige Book 14:00

USDA Broiler Eggs Set APR 8 207796 15:00

METAL PRICES: ($/ton)

Last % Chg RSI

Copper 9,619 -0.1 52

Aluminum 2,661 +0.0 57

Zinc 2,466 -0.1 55

Lead 2,744 +0.7 55

Nickel 26,501 -0.7 49

Tin 32,500 -0.2 60

OTHER MARKETS:

Last % Chg % YTD

U.S. Dollar Index 74.787 -0.1 -5.4

Crude Oil $106.43 +0.2 +16

Gold $1,458.2 +0.4 +2.6

MSCI World Index 1,338.47 +0.3 +4.6

Mytilineos to Decide in ?Few Weeks? Plans for Lead, Zinc Plant

Mytilineos Holdings SA will decide in ?the next few weeks? plans for the Copsa Mica zinc and lead smelter in Romania.

Pakistan State Oil Faces Cash Problem, Managing Director Says

Pakistan State Oil Co., the nation?s biggest fuel retailer, is facing a ?severe? cash flow situation after customers failed to pay for their purchases, Managing Director Irfan K. Qureshi said.

Oil-Options ?Smile? Backs BNP, Goldman on Japan: Energy Markets

The oil-options market shows traders are almost equally divided on where crude is headed, a sign the 30 percent gain in prices since unrest erupted in the Middle East is ending.

Dhunseri to Spend $123 Million to Add Capacity in India (1)

Dhunseri Petrochem & Tea Ltd., an Indian maker of petrochemicals and tea, plans to spend 5.5 billion rupees ($123 million) to add capacity to make resins, tea and develop real estate as economic growth spurs demand.

INDUSTRIAL METALS:

Rio Tinto Says Rain Cuts Quarterly Coal, Iron Ore Output (3)

Rio Tinto Group, the second-largest mining company by sales, said first-quarter output of iron ore, coal and uranium fell after severe weather in Australia disrupted mining and hampered port and rail operations.

Copper May Decline for a Third Day on China Tightening Concern

Copper may fall for a third day in London on concern China might take more steps to tighten credit and a reduced assessment of Japan?s economy after last month?s earthquake and tsunami.

Base-Metal etfs May Not Beat Gold, blackrock?s Fuhr Says (1)

Exchange-traded funds for base metals are unlikely to attract as much demand as those for gold and silver, according to Deborah Fuhr, head of ETF research at blackrock Inc., which is planning a product backed by copper.

MINING:

Harmony Gold Says Headline Earnings to Benefit From Tax Credit

Harmony Gold Mining Co. Said its headline earnings per share will benefit from a tax credit of about 330 million rand.

Mechel Says U.S. Justice Family to Sell 44.8% of Its Shares (2)

OAO Mechel, Russia?s largest producer of steelmaking coal, said the U.S.-based Justice family offered 44.8 percent of its shares for sale after prices rose.

South Africa to End 33-Week Prospecting Moratorium on April 18

South Africa, the nation with the largest mineral wealth, will end a 33-week moratorium on prospecting applications on April 18 after installing an online system aimed at avoiding repeats of maladministration.

Fresnillo Silver Output Falls on Lower Grades, Gold Advances (1)

Fresnillo Plc, the world?s largest primary silver producer, said first-quarter output of the metal fell 4.3 percent as ore grades declined.

Aquarius Platinum Reports Acquisition of Mineral Rights

Aquarius Platinum Ltd. Reported the purchase of platinum group metal mineral rights by way of the acquisition of Afarak Platinum (Proprietary) Ltd., a private company incorporated in South Africa.

Lundin Says Minmetals Offers ?Better Proposition? Than Equinox

Lundin Mining Corp. Said Minmetals Resources Ltd., bidding for Equinox Minerals Ltd., is offering a ?much better economic proposition? than Equinox is offering shareholders of Lundin. Lundin Chief Executive Officer Phil Wright commented in a statement yesterday.

Fresnillo?s Gold Output Climbs to Record During First Quarter

Fresnillo Plc said gold production rose 13.3 percent to a record 96,407 ounces during the three months to March 31.

PRECIOUS METALS:

Equities Trump Gold as Best Inflation Hedge: Chart of the Day

Investors favor equities over gold as the best asset to protect wealth against rising inflation, according to a Barclays Capital survey of 129 wealth managers based in Asia.

AGRICULTURE:

Soybeans Advance as Biggest Drop in a Month Attracts Importers

Soybeans, corn and wheat rose in Chicago on speculation the biggest declines in almost a month are luring importers and investors.

Kenya Coffee Rises as Buyers Boost Stocks Before Season-End (1)

Kenyan coffee prices rose 23 percent at the penultimate sale of the season yesterday as buyers boosted their stocks, the Nairobi Coffee Exchange said.

Cocoa May Advance on Ivory Coast Disruption; Coffee Prices Climb

Cocoa, little changed in London trading, may rise on concerns the harvest in Ivory Coast, the world?s largest producer, could be disrupted as fighting persists. Coffee advanced.

Sugar Seen Declining as Output in India Predicted to Climb 5%

Sugar production in India, the world?s second-biggest grower, may advance for a third year as farmers increase plantings, pushing down global prices.

Palm Oil Drops to Two-Week Low, Tracking Decline in Crude Oil

Palm oil fell for a second day, tracking declines in crude oil after the International Energy Agency said that prices above $100 a barrel are starting to hurt the global economy, eroding demand for food and crop-based fuel.

Uganda Lowers Coffee-Export Forecast as Drought Cuts Yields (1)

Uganda, Africa?s second-biggest coffee exporter, slashed its shipment forecast for the 2010-11 season by 16 percent after a drought cut yields, the Uganda Coffee Development Authority said.

SHIPPING:

Platou Cuts 2011 Capesize Forecast After Coal Cargoes Curtailed

RS Platou Markets AS, an Oslo-based investment bank, lowered its estimates for capesize shipping rates this year after a reduction in the supply of coal cargoes cut first- quarter charter costs.

ECONOMIES:

Yen Falls as Commodities, Asia Stocks Gain Before Economic Data

The yen weakened while commodities and Asian stocks snapped two days of declines before data this week on Chinese inflation, U.S. retail sales and European industrial production.

Billionaire Li?s IPO May Reduce Dim Sum Allure: China Credit

Billionaire Li Ka-shing?s sale of yuan-denominated shares in a property trust in Hong Kong this week may reduce the allure of Dim Sum bonds, according to Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc.

China Will Say March Inflation Jumped Above 5%, Brokerages Say

The Chinese government will probably announce this week that inflation jumped above 5 percent last month, according to Haitong Securities Co. And Central China Securities Co., citing market speculation.

Yen Snaps Four-Day Gain Before Economic Data; Asian Stocks Fall

The yen snapped a four-day advance versus the dollar before data this week on Chinese inflation, U.S. retail sales and European industrial production. Asian stocks fell for a third day, led by energy and utility companies.

Billionaire Li?s IPO May Reduce Dim Sum Allure: China Credit

Billionaire Li Ka-shing?s sale of yuan-denominated shares in a property trust in Hong Kong this week may reduce the allure of Dim Sum bonds, according to Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc.

The Fed Rescue Program Too Bizarre to Be True: Michael Lewis

Last week the Federal Reserve bravely released 894 PDF files containing 29,346 pages that detailed its heroic actions during the financial crisis.

Banks Face Scrutiny of Sovereign Debt in EU Stress Tests (1)

European regulators will scrutinize banks? calculations for losses on sovereign debt held to maturity when carrying out this year?s stress tests, Europe?s top banking supervisor said.

U.K. March Jobless Claims Unexpectedly Rise on Benefit Rules (3)

U.K. jobless claims unexpectedly rose in March, led by women as a change in benefit rules pushed people into the labor market.

Asia Deficits Swell as Soaring Oil Cost Delays Subsidy Cuts (1)

Surging oil and food costs may swell budget deficits in Asia as governments spend on subsidies to keep consumer prices low and avoid inflation protests that helped topple regimes in the Middle East this year.

Fed?s Fisher Sees Risk of Inflation Getting Out of Control

Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas President Richard Fisher said he sees a risk of inflation getting out of control, according to a guest commentary in German newspaper Handelsblatt.

OTHER MARKETS:

Stocks, U.S. Futures Rally as Bonds, Yen Drop; Commodities Gain

Stocks rallied, with European equities rebounding from the biggest drop in four weeks, while the yen and Treasuries fell. U.S. index futures gained before jpmorgan Chase & Co. Reports earnings, and commodities advanced.

Pound Reaches Six-Month Low Versus Euro as Jobless Claims Rise

The pound touched the lowest in almost six months against the euro as a report showed U.K. jobless claims unexpectedly increased in March even as unemployment declined.

European Stocks, U.S. Futures Rise; Alcatel-Lucent Shares Rally

European stocks gained, rebounding from their biggest drop in four weeks, as the region?s factory output increased and building-material shares rallied. U.S. index futures and Asian shares advanced.

Oil Drops a Third Day as Libyan Rebels Consider Truce Proposal

Oil declined for a third day in New York, reversing earlier gains as Libyan rebels considered a Turkish initiative to end fighting in the North African country.

China Cotton Buying Slows for U.S. Sellers, Eastern Trading Says

China, the world?s largest cotton buyer, is reducing purchases of the fiber as demand slows and some mills delay orders, according to Eastern Trading Co., a U.S. exporter.

Mubarak, Sons Detained for 15 Days in Egypt Graft Inquiry (1)

Egypt?s public prosecutor ordered the detention of former President Hosni Mubarak for 15 days while he is being investigated as part of a corruption probe, state-run Nile News television reported.

Libya Rebels Urge More NATO Force to Avert Misrata Massacre (3)

Libyan rebels said Muammar Qaddafi?s forces are stepping up attacks on Misrata and firing rockets into the city and appealed for international help before a meeting today with their U.S.- led allies.

Pimco Is ?Large Overweight? on China, Predicts Earnings Growth

Pacific Investment Management Co., manager of the world?s largest mutual fund, is buying Chinese stocks because it expects earnings to grow as monetary tightening policies ease.

Malawi, Africa?s second-largest tea producer, reported a 14 percent price rise for the commodity at auction on quality, Tea Brokers Central Africa, managers of the auction, said in an e-mailed report.

The benchmark price of tea rose to $2.80 from $2.45 on March 29, according to the report.

?There was good demand for the leaf very closely following quality,? Tea Brokers said in the auction report.

Tea is Malawi?s second-largest foreign exchange earner after tobacco, generating 8 percent of total export earnings. The U.K. is typically the largest buyer of tea from Malawi.