USDA Estimate 35.1m tones Domestic Soybean Shipment 2011-12

The US Department of Agriculture's upgrade on Tuesday to 35.1m tonnes in its estimate for domestic soybean shipments in 2011-12 implies a rapid pick-up in the second half of the marketing year, the March-to-August period, Australia & New Zealand Bank said.

The data mean that "exports are likely to test historical highs" for the rest of the season, and return to showing year on year increases following a 7.5% decline over recent months, when US soybeans were competing with heavy exports from Brazil, which reaped a bumper 2011 crop.

US soybean exports are to test seasonal records in the next few months thanks to the shortfall in South American production, which will see Brazil's soaring shipments fall into decline.

Indeed, they will reach a near-record 10.7m tonnes in the period, given that the US has shipped 24.4m tonnes from September to February, the first half of the marketing year.