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Gold and Silver Forecast Deutsche Bank
Written By mine on Selasa, 23 Oktober 2012 | 18.01
The Deutsche Bank raised its 2013 and 2014 forecasts for metals commodities of gold and silver, the gold price could exceed to $2,200 a ounce in 2013. the bank lifted its 2013 gold price outlook by 3% to $2,113 per ounce and its 2014 forecast by y 11.1% to $2,000/oz. The German bank similarly advanced its 2013 price forecast on silver by 3% to $44/oz and its 2014 outlook by 11.1% to $40/oz.
Deutsche Bank analys that a major support for precious metal prices are the recent moves by central banks to expand their balance sheet. Since gold is often sought as a hedge against currency weakness and inflation at times of loose monetary policy, such moves tend to boost its appeal to investors. While we have targeted gold prices moving above $2,000/oz since the beginning of 2011, we believe the Fed's open-ended program of QE announced last month increases our confidence that a surge in the gold price above this level is only a matter of time.
Deutsche Bank analys that a major support for precious metal prices are the recent moves by central banks to expand their balance sheet. Since gold is often sought as a hedge against currency weakness and inflation at times of loose monetary policy, such moves tend to boost its appeal to investors. While we have targeted gold prices moving above $2,000/oz since the beginning of 2011, we believe the Fed's open-ended program of QE announced last month increases our confidence that a surge in the gold price above this level is only a matter of time.
Gold Commodity retreated, Bullion Slide
Written By mine on Sabtu, 17 Desember 2011 | 19.14
Gold bullion’s slide of as much as 9 percent this week took its drop from the record $1,923.70 an ounce reached in September to almost 20 percent, the common definition of a bear market, investors are still holding near the most metal ever in exchange-traded products, a wager now valued at $120.2 billion.
Gold commodity retreated the most in almost three months and more than $640 billion was wiped off the value of global equities on Dec. 14 after the Federal Reserve refrained from taking new stimulus measures. That combined with signs of increased funding stress in Europe helped drive the dollar to the highest since January against the euro. Gold typically moves in the opposite direction to the U.S. currency.
Gold bullion rose 12 percent to $1,592.70 an ounce this year on the Comex in New York. Even after this week’s rout, it’s still the third-best performer in the Standard & Poor’s GSCI gauge of 24 commodities, which fell 2.6 percent. The MSCI All-Country World Index of equities retreated 12 percent this year and Treasuries returned 9.6 percent, a Bank of America Corp. index shows.
Options traders are still bullish. The most widely held option gives owners the right to buy gold at $2,000 by March, data from the bourse show. The eight biggest holdings are all call options at 13 percent or more above prices today.
While investors cut 13.3 metric tons of gold from their ETP holdings yesterday, the most since Aug. 24, assets are less than 1 percent below the record set Dec. 14, data compiled by Bloomberg show. Holders have a combined 2,347.5 tons, greater than the reserves of all but four of the world’s central banks and equal to more than 10 months of global mine supply.
Gold commodity retreated the most in almost three months and more than $640 billion was wiped off the value of global equities on Dec. 14 after the Federal Reserve refrained from taking new stimulus measures. That combined with signs of increased funding stress in Europe helped drive the dollar to the highest since January against the euro. Gold typically moves in the opposite direction to the U.S. currency.
Gold bullion rose 12 percent to $1,592.70 an ounce this year on the Comex in New York. Even after this week’s rout, it’s still the third-best performer in the Standard & Poor’s GSCI gauge of 24 commodities, which fell 2.6 percent. The MSCI All-Country World Index of equities retreated 12 percent this year and Treasuries returned 9.6 percent, a Bank of America Corp. index shows.
Options traders are still bullish. The most widely held option gives owners the right to buy gold at $2,000 by March, data from the bourse show. The eight biggest holdings are all call options at 13 percent or more above prices today.
While investors cut 13.3 metric tons of gold from their ETP holdings yesterday, the most since Aug. 24, assets are less than 1 percent below the record set Dec. 14, data compiled by Bloomberg show. Holders have a combined 2,347.5 tons, greater than the reserves of all but four of the world’s central banks and equal to more than 10 months of global mine supply.
Gold and Silver Commodity Daily Update Price
Written By mine on Rabu, 26 Oktober 2011 | 07.33
Gold opened little changed at 1655.50/1656.50. Early morning saw the metal drift slowly lower, reaching an intraday low of 1648.50/1649.50. Poor consumer confidence data and mixed headlines about the EU summit had investors return to gold for safe haven. Strong buying interest pushed the metal to an intraday high of 1702.75/1703.75 mid day. Gold closed the session soon after at 1699.25/1700.25.
Gold has staged a strong up day to 1700. The unit has broken the 31.8% Fibo at 1684 and the previous weekly high at 1694. The closest resistance is 1704, the former August low/ September pivot. The move in Gold is bullish with 1729 the 50% of our two month range a target on a break of 1704.
Silver opened higher at 31.70/31.75, reaching an intraday low of 31.35/31.40 as equities opened lower and base metals declined. Shrugging off this early loss as gold and crude made strong gains with base metals attempting a come back, buyers bid silver strongly higher eventually reaching its intraday high of 33.30/33.35 mid day. The metal soon ended the session at 33.10/33.15.
Silver has broken above key resistance levels to 33.09. The close above previous weekly high and Fibo level is bullish. If the market can sustain these higher levels then the next Fibo target is the 50% level at 35.14. The Gold Silver ratio is lower today to 51.34. The ratio is at the lower end of its 6 week trading range. Another leg lower would take the ratio to 50.02 which is the 50% of our 1 year range.
Gold has staged a strong up day to 1700. The unit has broken the 31.8% Fibo at 1684 and the previous weekly high at 1694. The closest resistance is 1704, the former August low/ September pivot. The move in Gold is bullish with 1729 the 50% of our two month range a target on a break of 1704.
Silver opened higher at 31.70/31.75, reaching an intraday low of 31.35/31.40 as equities opened lower and base metals declined. Shrugging off this early loss as gold and crude made strong gains with base metals attempting a come back, buyers bid silver strongly higher eventually reaching its intraday high of 33.30/33.35 mid day. The metal soon ended the session at 33.10/33.15.
Silver has broken above key resistance levels to 33.09. The close above previous weekly high and Fibo level is bullish. If the market can sustain these higher levels then the next Fibo target is the 50% level at 35.14. The Gold Silver ratio is lower today to 51.34. The ratio is at the lower end of its 6 week trading range. Another leg lower would take the ratio to 50.02 which is the 50% of our 1 year range.
Gold Prices Climb as Cash Continue to Flood Precious Metal
Written By mine on Senin, 18 Juli 2011 | 15.35
Gold climbed above the $1,600 level for the first time in history on Monday as cash continues to flood to the precious metal amid great uncertainty over Washington?s ability to avoid a potentially-crushing default.
The latest rally leaves gold at another all-time high and on track for its 10th consecutive daily gain. Gold had already picked up 7.25% over its previous nine sessions.
Gold hit the $1,600-an-ounce mark early on Monday before retreating a bit. In recent trading commodity, gold was up $14.70 a troy ounce, or 0.91%, to $1,604.80.
Gold-related stocks such as Newmont Mining (NEM: 58.09, +0.71, +1.24%) and Barrick Gold (ABX: 49.03, +0.72, +1.49%) were also bid higher.
Traders have pushed gold higher amid fears Congress and the White House will be unable to reach an agreement to raise the $14.3 trillion U.S. debt ceiling before ratings companies downgrade the nation?s AAA credit rating or the country defaults on its obligations.
Despite weeks of exhaustive talks between lawmakers, the two sides have failed to come to a compromise. Economists have warned a default could send the U.S. into another financial crisis and even a second recession.
Ratings company Fitch said Monday it will place the U.S.?s sovereign rating on watch for a downgrade if the debt ceiling isn?t raised by the Treasury Department?s August 2 deadline. However, Fitch said it still believes an agreement will be reached before then and the U.S. will make a full payment on all obligations.
At the same time, Europe is still dealing with its own sovereign debt crisis, which some fear will result in Greece defaulting or even being kicked out of the European Union.
With those concerns in mind, gold leaped 3.15% last week, its second-straight weekly rally and 13th of the past 17. While the metal remains 33.62% from its inflation-adjusted record of $2,395.03 that was set in January 1980, it has surged more than 34% over the past year.
However, not everyone is a believer in gold?s staying power.
Speculators ?once again have hijacked the markets and the small investor will soon pay the price,? said Jon Nadler, senior analyst at Kitco Metals. Nadler said the surge has been "built on but two items which are not in the cards: EU collapse and a U.S. collapse.?
The buying binge in gold stands in contrast to the action in other commodities like copper and crude oil, which are both good indicators for economic sentiments. Crude tumbled $2.31 a barrel, or 2.40%, to $95.29. Copper slid 0.67% a pound to $4.3835.
Likewise, the Dow Jones Industrial Average shed more than 150 points Monday morning and the Nasdaq Composite declined 1.2%.
The latest rally leaves gold at another all-time high and on track for its 10th consecutive daily gain. Gold had already picked up 7.25% over its previous nine sessions.
Gold hit the $1,600-an-ounce mark early on Monday before retreating a bit. In recent trading commodity, gold was up $14.70 a troy ounce, or 0.91%, to $1,604.80.
Gold-related stocks such as Newmont Mining (NEM: 58.09, +0.71, +1.24%) and Barrick Gold (ABX: 49.03, +0.72, +1.49%) were also bid higher.
Traders have pushed gold higher amid fears Congress and the White House will be unable to reach an agreement to raise the $14.3 trillion U.S. debt ceiling before ratings companies downgrade the nation?s AAA credit rating or the country defaults on its obligations.
Despite weeks of exhaustive talks between lawmakers, the two sides have failed to come to a compromise. Economists have warned a default could send the U.S. into another financial crisis and even a second recession.
Ratings company Fitch said Monday it will place the U.S.?s sovereign rating on watch for a downgrade if the debt ceiling isn?t raised by the Treasury Department?s August 2 deadline. However, Fitch said it still believes an agreement will be reached before then and the U.S. will make a full payment on all obligations.
At the same time, Europe is still dealing with its own sovereign debt crisis, which some fear will result in Greece defaulting or even being kicked out of the European Union.
With those concerns in mind, gold leaped 3.15% last week, its second-straight weekly rally and 13th of the past 17. While the metal remains 33.62% from its inflation-adjusted record of $2,395.03 that was set in January 1980, it has surged more than 34% over the past year.
However, not everyone is a believer in gold?s staying power.
Speculators ?once again have hijacked the markets and the small investor will soon pay the price,? said Jon Nadler, senior analyst at Kitco Metals. Nadler said the surge has been "built on but two items which are not in the cards: EU collapse and a U.S. collapse.?
The buying binge in gold stands in contrast to the action in other commodities like copper and crude oil, which are both good indicators for economic sentiments. Crude tumbled $2.31 a barrel, or 2.40%, to $95.29. Copper slid 0.67% a pound to $4.3835.
Likewise, the Dow Jones Industrial Average shed more than 150 points Monday morning and the Nasdaq Composite declined 1.2%.
Metal Oil Commodities Stock Prices Especially Industrial and Company
Written By mine on Rabu, 13 Oktober 2010 | 09.34
Growth commodities prices for metals, oil and other commodities lifted stock prices, especially industrial and materials companies. Strong corporate earnings reports from JPMorgan Chase & Co., Intel Corp. and railroad operator CSX Corp. also gave investors more reasons to be assured about the economy.
Gold touched another record and oil rose about 2 percent. Freeport-McMoRan Copper & Gold Inc. and Newmont Mining Corp. were among the biggest winners.
The Dow Jones industrial average rose 102 points in midday trading.
The earnings reports all contained nuggets of hopeful news on the broader economy.
"They were assuring," said Andrew Ross, partner at First New York Securities. "But they weren't inspiring, or disrupting."
Those results allowed the market to continue the upward trajectory it has taken in recent weeks, Ross said. The Dow is up 3.1 percent in October and has jumped more than 11 percent since the beginning of September.
JPMorgan's CEO Jamie Dimon predicted credit card defaults are likely to fall next quarter. Intel predicted sales should remain consistent through the end of the year as customers switch from back-to-school shopping to the holiday season. CSX saw a big jump in shipments of cars and trucks.
The Dow rose 102.44, or 0.9 percent, to 11,122.84 in midday trading.
The Standard & Poor's 500 index rose 10.22, or 0.9 percent, to 1,179.99, while the Nasdaq composite index rose 24.82, or 1 percent, to 2,442.74.
Gold rose as high as $1,375.70 an ounce before pulling back to $1,369.80. Benchmark crude oil rose $1.53 to $83.98 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange.
With traders moving into stocks, bond prices dipped and interest rates rose slightly. The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note, which moves opposite its price, rose to 2.48 percent from 2.43 percent late Tuesday.
Bond prices have been rising in recent weeks as expectations mount that the Federal Reserve will start buying Treasurys and take other measures to encourage lending. Minutes from the Fed's September meeting released Tuesday afternoon suggest that the central bank is nearing consensus on when and how to take more stimulus measures. Traders are hoping for more specific news after the Fed's meeting in early November.
In an odd twist, stocks have also benefited from the expected move by the Fed because they become more attractive investments over a longer period if bond yields continue to fall.
Freeport-McMoRan rose $3.45, or 3.6 percent, to $98.58, while Newmont jumped 96 cents to $62.96.
CSX shares jumped $2.30, or 4 percent, to $59.56. JPMorgan Chase shares fell 4 cents to $40.36 and Intel slipped 11 cents to $19.66. Both have seesawed throughout the day.
Gold touched another record and oil rose about 2 percent. Freeport-McMoRan Copper & Gold Inc. and Newmont Mining Corp. were among the biggest winners.
The Dow Jones industrial average rose 102 points in midday trading.
The earnings reports all contained nuggets of hopeful news on the broader economy.
"They were assuring," said Andrew Ross, partner at First New York Securities. "But they weren't inspiring, or disrupting."
Those results allowed the market to continue the upward trajectory it has taken in recent weeks, Ross said. The Dow is up 3.1 percent in October and has jumped more than 11 percent since the beginning of September.
JPMorgan's CEO Jamie Dimon predicted credit card defaults are likely to fall next quarter. Intel predicted sales should remain consistent through the end of the year as customers switch from back-to-school shopping to the holiday season. CSX saw a big jump in shipments of cars and trucks.
The Dow rose 102.44, or 0.9 percent, to 11,122.84 in midday trading.
The Standard & Poor's 500 index rose 10.22, or 0.9 percent, to 1,179.99, while the Nasdaq composite index rose 24.82, or 1 percent, to 2,442.74.
Gold rose as high as $1,375.70 an ounce before pulling back to $1,369.80. Benchmark crude oil rose $1.53 to $83.98 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange.
With traders moving into stocks, bond prices dipped and interest rates rose slightly. The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note, which moves opposite its price, rose to 2.48 percent from 2.43 percent late Tuesday.
Bond prices have been rising in recent weeks as expectations mount that the Federal Reserve will start buying Treasurys and take other measures to encourage lending. Minutes from the Fed's September meeting released Tuesday afternoon suggest that the central bank is nearing consensus on when and how to take more stimulus measures. Traders are hoping for more specific news after the Fed's meeting in early November.
In an odd twist, stocks have also benefited from the expected move by the Fed because they become more attractive investments over a longer period if bond yields continue to fall.
Freeport-McMoRan rose $3.45, or 3.6 percent, to $98.58, while Newmont jumped 96 cents to $62.96.
CSX shares jumped $2.30, or 4 percent, to $59.56. JPMorgan Chase shares fell 4 cents to $40.36 and Intel slipped 11 cents to $19.66. Both have seesawed throughout the day.
