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Natural Gas Advanced, November Delivery Gain

Written By mine on Minggu, 21 Oktober 2012 | 06.31

Natural gas advanced to a 10-month high in New York on speculation that above-normal demand from electricity generators will help reduce a supply surplus. Natural gas for November delivery gained 3 cents to settle at $3.617 per million British thermal units on the New York Mercantile Exchange, the highest settlement since Dec. 1. The futures have jumped 21 percent this year. Prices rose 6 cents this week.

Gas demand from power plants rose 16 percent in July from a year earlier and may show a 14 percent year-on-year gain this quarter, according to an Oct. 10 Energy Department report. Commodity Weather Group LLC in Bethesda, Maryland, predicted mostly cooler-than-normal weather in the eastern half of the U.S. from Oct. 29 through Nov. 2.

Gas rose 0.8 percent after an Energy Department report yesterday showed inventories expanded by 51 billion cubic feet, less than the five-year average gain of 71 billion for the week. Supplies climbed 106 billion a year earlier. Power plants are burning record amounts of the fuel this year as seasonal prices near decade lows prompted switching from coal.

“Natural gas is still being consumed in the electric power sector without being displaced by coal,” said Tom Saal, senior vice president of energy trading at INTL Hencorp Futures LLC in Miami. “We’ll see how long that lasts as we go into winter if prices go higher.”

November $3.75 calls were the most active gas options in electronic trading. They were down 0.2 cent to 2.7 cents on volume of 774 contracts as of 3:11 p.m. Calls accounted for 59 percent of options volume.

Inventories totaled 3.776 trillion cubic feet in the week ended Oct. 12, 7.1 percent above the five-year average, yesterday’s report showed. The surplus to the average is down from 61 percent on March 30. Stockpiles may reach 3.903 trillion cubic feet by Oct. 31, below estimated capacity of 4.239 trillion, Energy Department data show.

The low in New York on Oct. 31 may be 35 degrees Fahrenheit (2 Celsius), 11 below normal, according to AccuWeather Inc. in State College, Pennsylvania. The low in Cleveland may be 31 degrees, 13 less than the usual reading.

About 50 percent of U.S. households use gas for heating, according to the Energy Department. The coming U.S. winter will probably be cooler than a year earlier, boosting demand for heating fuels such as natural gas, a panel of forecasters said.

Gasoline Future Fall Crude oil Weak in Market Commodity

Written By mine on Minggu, 15 Mei 2011 | 05.52

In the two weeks ending Friday, May 13, Brent dropped about 10% to close at $113.83 a barrel on ICE, while WTI plunged 12% to $99.65 a barrel at Nymex, and RBOB gasoline futures for June also lost 8% to around $3.0766 a gallon.

Although this week started off with some sign of stabilization, the heavy selling and volatility resumed mid week. The deep slide for commodities, including crude and gasoline, could be partly attributed to the reverberation from a recent wave of margin requirement increases amid volatility and price run-up in commodities.

CME Group already raised margin requirements on several energy products, and announced a second hike for gasoline futures effective Thursday, May 12. Increased margin requirement could trigger liquidation contagion as traders may need to sell their profitable positions in other commodities or equities to raise cash in order to meet the new limits.

Crude oil weakness also came from some bearish reports that hit the market this week. EIA data showed that gasoline inventories had its first weekly increase (1.3 million barrels) in about three months, while crude oil stockpiles continued to build. The IEA (International Energy Agency), citing ?$4/gallon gasoline is likely to yield an anemic US driving season,? also said the oil demand in North America would fall by 194,000 barrels per day in 2011, a downward revision by 220,000 b/d.

The price tumble was big enough to trigger a five-minute halt in trading of crude oil, heating oil and gasoline for the first time in over two years on Wednesday. May 11 at CME electronic trading platform.

The Reuters Jefferies CRB Index is down 8% so far in May with almost every single commodity in the index registering red. Even the ongoing geopolitical tension in the Middle East and North Africa has not been able to shield the ever bullish crude oil from the commodity rout. Both Nymex WTI and ICE Brent suffered heavy losses.

With the record retreat in crude oil prices, many consumers are expecting ?some big retail price drops? in time for Memorial Day weekend. After all, crude oil accounts for more than two thirds (68.3%) of the price in a gallon of gasoline as of March 2011, according to the U.S. Energy Department.

Crude oil and gasoline prices typically trend in tandem on the same set of market fundamentals, but this time around, the decoupling of gasoline and crude oil would mean gasoline prices may be harder to drop.

MarketWatch reported that some refiners said their fuel sales in April had fallen by as much as 4% from March as high prices prompted consumers driving less. As refiners cut their run rate due to lower gasoline demand, the resulted sliding refinery utilization rate--82.8% as of April 29 as compared with 89.6% same period a year ago--has created a diverging supply side fundamental between crude oil and gasoline, which is more bullish for gasoline, and bearish for crude oil.

That is, while crude oil stockpiles continue to build pressuring WTI, gasoline inventories and are now 21.4 million barrels lower than a year ago and could dip below the normal range before the start of the summer driving season (see chart below). Days of gasoline supply also dropped to 22.9 days vs. 24.1 days from a year ago .

Another factor holding up gasoline prices is the flooding of Mississippi River. Rising water levels and heavy rains are causing fuel transportation disruptions in tankers, barges and pipeline closures, which reportedly has already contributed to higher pump prices in certain parts of the Southeast and Midwest regions. About 14% of total U.S. refining capacity is located in regions affected by the rising Mississippi River. Concern about disruptions of fuel helped boost wholesale gasoline prices.

Moreover, pump prices typically react a lot faster to spikes than to declines in oil prices. In a guest post at EconMatters , Bob van der Valk, a petroleum industry analyst, estimates the lower oil price may not show up at the pump for up to eight weeks vs. within the first two weeks in the case of oil price spikes.

According to AAA Daily Fuel Gauge Report updated through May 13, 2011, the national average price stood at $3.982, essentially unchanged from a week ago, while 16 states have average gas price of more than $4 a gallon.

EIA projected that gasoline demand is likely to increase by just 0.2% in the peak summer driving season this year. However, with Memorial weekend, the traditional kickoff of the summer driving season, just two weeks away, and as the current gasoline stocks are very low by historical standard, plus Mississippi River flooding further complicating the picture, consumers may not see a real relief at the pump till the end of summer driving season in September, assuming no huge price spikes coming form crude oil.

Looking ahead, crude oil price may be hinged upon gasoline for the remainder of this year. That is, WTI prices may get support if there are continued draws on the gasoline inventory signaling stronger fuel demand. In the next 3 months or so, some drawdowns of crude inventories could be expected as refiners increase run rate to replenish the low gasoline inventory amid peak demand season, which should also provide support to crude oil price as well.

Nevertheless, some factors as outlined below would bring continued downward price pressure for both WTI crude oil and RBOB gasoline, particularly in the second half of this year, barring geopolitical and hurricane events.

* Various forecasts of slower global GDP and oil demand growth
* Signs of demand destruction in response to high energy prices
* The end of QE2 in June
* Stronger dollar due to ongoing debt problems in Europe
* China and other higher growth economies tightening and slowing down to fight inflation
* Some big players still holding long positions in anticipation of higher oil prices , which would trigger huge price plunge and volatility should they decide to liquidate.

Compared with crude oil, RBOB gasoline looks overpriced thus more vulnerable to larger percentage falls.

For now, both crude oil and gasoline are momentum driven. From a technical perspective, most of the indicators are bearish for both commodities as the six-month long uptrend has been broken (See Charts Above).

If WTI breaks below the $95 support levels, it could drop to around $90 or even below. For RBOB gasoline, the $3.00 support should hold through August, but after the driving season ends, and if it breaks $3.00 a gallon, the next support level would be around $2.80 levels.

Baron Energy Increase Oil and Gas Commodities Sales

Written By mine on Senin, 27 September 2010 | 05.31

Baron Energy, Inc. is an independent commodities oil and gas production, exploitation, and exploration company headquartered in New Braunfels, Texas with producing assets in the prolific oil producing Permian Basin of West Texas, announced that it has changed the crude oil transporter on its operated properties, providing the Company with more control over the timing of its oil sales.

Oil commodity from Baron Energy operated wells is transported by truck; we are paid for our oil sales on a calendar-month basis. We now have a crude oil transporter willing to pick up and transport a partial load of oil. This provides significant flexibility to manage our monthly sales. We are able to minimize the time between production and sales and have more control over our monthly cash flow.

October Futures Oil Commodity Continues Decline Natural Gas Price Rose

Written By mine on Jumat, 17 September 2010 | 01.42

Commodity oil futures for October continued their decline Thursday as Enbridge Energy prepared to return Line 6A of its Lakehead pipeline system back to service and new government data indicated weaker demand for oil and gas. Light, sweet crude settled at $74.57, down $1.45 a barrel. Oil for October delivery peaked at $75.99 and bottomed out at $ 74.11 Thursday.

Commodty natural gas prices rose for the fifth consecutive day, settling at $4.07 per thousand cubic feet. Gas stockpiles increased by 103 billion cubic feet last week, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported Thursday. Compared to last year's net injection of 67 Bcf, data indicate a lower demand for gas-fired electricity. Working gas in storage exceeds the 5-year average for this time of the year in each of the storage regions since March 26, 2010.

The intraday range for natural gas was $3.85 to $4.14. Front-month gasoline futures settled at $1.92 per gallon. Gasoline fluctuated from $1.90 to $1.95 Thursday.

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