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Gasoline Future Fall Crude oil Weak in Market Commodity

Written By mine on Minggu, 15 Mei 2011 | 05.52

In the two weeks ending Friday, May 13, Brent dropped about 10% to close at $113.83 a barrel on ICE, while WTI plunged 12% to $99.65 a barrel at Nymex, and RBOB gasoline futures for June also lost 8% to around $3.0766 a gallon.

Although this week started off with some sign of stabilization, the heavy selling and volatility resumed mid week. The deep slide for commodities, including crude and gasoline, could be partly attributed to the reverberation from a recent wave of margin requirement increases amid volatility and price run-up in commodities.

CME Group already raised margin requirements on several energy products, and announced a second hike for gasoline futures effective Thursday, May 12. Increased margin requirement could trigger liquidation contagion as traders may need to sell their profitable positions in other commodities or equities to raise cash in order to meet the new limits.

Crude oil weakness also came from some bearish reports that hit the market this week. EIA data showed that gasoline inventories had its first weekly increase (1.3 million barrels) in about three months, while crude oil stockpiles continued to build. The IEA (International Energy Agency), citing ?$4/gallon gasoline is likely to yield an anemic US driving season,? also said the oil demand in North America would fall by 194,000 barrels per day in 2011, a downward revision by 220,000 b/d.

The price tumble was big enough to trigger a five-minute halt in trading of crude oil, heating oil and gasoline for the first time in over two years on Wednesday. May 11 at CME electronic trading platform.

The Reuters Jefferies CRB Index is down 8% so far in May with almost every single commodity in the index registering red. Even the ongoing geopolitical tension in the Middle East and North Africa has not been able to shield the ever bullish crude oil from the commodity rout. Both Nymex WTI and ICE Brent suffered heavy losses.

With the record retreat in crude oil prices, many consumers are expecting ?some big retail price drops? in time for Memorial Day weekend. After all, crude oil accounts for more than two thirds (68.3%) of the price in a gallon of gasoline as of March 2011, according to the U.S. Energy Department.

Crude oil and gasoline prices typically trend in tandem on the same set of market fundamentals, but this time around, the decoupling of gasoline and crude oil would mean gasoline prices may be harder to drop.

MarketWatch reported that some refiners said their fuel sales in April had fallen by as much as 4% from March as high prices prompted consumers driving less. As refiners cut their run rate due to lower gasoline demand, the resulted sliding refinery utilization rate--82.8% as of April 29 as compared with 89.6% same period a year ago--has created a diverging supply side fundamental between crude oil and gasoline, which is more bullish for gasoline, and bearish for crude oil.

That is, while crude oil stockpiles continue to build pressuring WTI, gasoline inventories and are now 21.4 million barrels lower than a year ago and could dip below the normal range before the start of the summer driving season (see chart below). Days of gasoline supply also dropped to 22.9 days vs. 24.1 days from a year ago .

Another factor holding up gasoline prices is the flooding of Mississippi River. Rising water levels and heavy rains are causing fuel transportation disruptions in tankers, barges and pipeline closures, which reportedly has already contributed to higher pump prices in certain parts of the Southeast and Midwest regions. About 14% of total U.S. refining capacity is located in regions affected by the rising Mississippi River. Concern about disruptions of fuel helped boost wholesale gasoline prices.

Moreover, pump prices typically react a lot faster to spikes than to declines in oil prices. In a guest post at EconMatters , Bob van der Valk, a petroleum industry analyst, estimates the lower oil price may not show up at the pump for up to eight weeks vs. within the first two weeks in the case of oil price spikes.

According to AAA Daily Fuel Gauge Report updated through May 13, 2011, the national average price stood at $3.982, essentially unchanged from a week ago, while 16 states have average gas price of more than $4 a gallon.

EIA projected that gasoline demand is likely to increase by just 0.2% in the peak summer driving season this year. However, with Memorial weekend, the traditional kickoff of the summer driving season, just two weeks away, and as the current gasoline stocks are very low by historical standard, plus Mississippi River flooding further complicating the picture, consumers may not see a real relief at the pump till the end of summer driving season in September, assuming no huge price spikes coming form crude oil.

Looking ahead, crude oil price may be hinged upon gasoline for the remainder of this year. That is, WTI prices may get support if there are continued draws on the gasoline inventory signaling stronger fuel demand. In the next 3 months or so, some drawdowns of crude inventories could be expected as refiners increase run rate to replenish the low gasoline inventory amid peak demand season, which should also provide support to crude oil price as well.

Nevertheless, some factors as outlined below would bring continued downward price pressure for both WTI crude oil and RBOB gasoline, particularly in the second half of this year, barring geopolitical and hurricane events.

* Various forecasts of slower global GDP and oil demand growth
* Signs of demand destruction in response to high energy prices
* The end of QE2 in June
* Stronger dollar due to ongoing debt problems in Europe
* China and other higher growth economies tightening and slowing down to fight inflation
* Some big players still holding long positions in anticipation of higher oil prices , which would trigger huge price plunge and volatility should they decide to liquidate.

Compared with crude oil, RBOB gasoline looks overpriced thus more vulnerable to larger percentage falls.

For now, both crude oil and gasoline are momentum driven. From a technical perspective, most of the indicators are bearish for both commodities as the six-month long uptrend has been broken (See Charts Above).

If WTI breaks below the $95 support levels, it could drop to around $90 or even below. For RBOB gasoline, the $3.00 support should hold through August, but after the driving season ends, and if it breaks $3.00 a gallon, the next support level would be around $2.80 levels.

Commodity prices of Oil nears USD107 a barrel, gasoline above USD3.50

Written By mine on Senin, 07 Maret 2011 | 11.58

Commodity prices of oil continued to set new post-recession highs Monday as forces loyal to Moammar Gadhafi pounded rebels near a key oil port in Libya. It's unclear how long the country's oil exports will be cut off, and traders prepared for a worst-case scenario in which world supplies would be under pressure for months. .

Benchmark West Texas Intermediate crude for April delivery gained 52 cents at $104.95 per barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. The price almost hit $107 per barrel earlier in electronic trading, the highest since Sept. 26, 2008.

In London, Brent crude added 32 cents at $116.29 per barrel.

Commodity oil prise rising is driving U.S. gasoline prices to levels that weren't expected for at least another month. Pump prices have jumped an average of 39 cents per gallon since the Libyan uprising began in mid-February, forcing motorists to pay an additional $146 million per day for using the same amount of fuel. The national average hit $3.509 per gallon on Monday, according to AAA, Wright Express and Oil Price Information Service.

Libya, which sits on the largest oil reserves in Africa, has been engulfed in a four-week rebellion as militants try to oust Gadhafi after 41 years in power. Officials in the country say oil fields continue to operate, but daily exports of 1.5 million barrels could be cut off for some time.

On Monday, Libyan warplanes launched more airstrikes on rebel positions around the Ras Lanouf oil port as forces loyal to Gadhafi tried to keep rebels from advancing on his stronghold in the capital, Tripoli.

Saudi Arabia has increased production to make up for the loss of Libyan crude, which goes mainly to Europe. The Obama administration was also considering tapping the U.S. strategic oil reserves of 727 million barrels.

Releasing those supplies could cool off overheated energy markets, but it also would put a tighter squeeze on the world's oil supplies as the global economy recovers and consumption rises.

"They'll remove the cushion of extra supplies," said Jim Ritterbusch, president of energy consultancy Ritterbusch and Associates. "Until this situation gets resolved, prices are going to continue to grind higher."

The Energy Information Administration estimates OPEC can crank up production by another 4.7 million barrels per day. An extended shut down of Libya's exports would slice that capacity by about 32 percent to around 3.2 million barrels per day. Most of the world's spare capacity lies in OPEC nations, primarily Saudi Arabia.

"The question then is what else can happen," said Erik Kreil, who covers international energy markets for EIA. "If it gets worse in North Africa or the Middle East, production could fall further and you'll have less spare capacity."

Global spare capacity fell below 2 million barrels per day in 2008 before oil prices spiked to an all-time record of $147 per barrel.

In other Nymex trading on Monday for April contracts, heating oil was unchanged at $3.0896 per gallon, while gasoline futures lost a penny at $3.0332 per gallon. Natural gas rose 6 cents to $3.870 per 1,000 cubic feet.

Crude oil Future Climbed after Labor Department Statement

Written By mine on Minggu, 07 November 2010 | 08.08

Crude oil futures climbed Friday to settle at a high two years after the Labor Department said the U.S. economy added 151,000 jobs last month.

Nonfarm payrolls rose by a larger than expected 151,000 in October, the first gain since May, according to the Labor Department. But the addition was not enough to reduce unemployment, which remained at 9.6% move.

Light, sweet crude for December delivery settled 36 cents, or 0.4%, to $ 86.85 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange, the highest settlement since October 2008. Brent crude on the ICE Futures Exchange recently 12 cents, or 0.1%, gained $ 88.12.

Oil prices are heavily influenced by employment data, as rising employment, demand for gasoline increased by increasing the number of commuters on the road.

Crude settled higher every day this week, finishing up 6.7%. The Federal Reserve has announced $ 600 billion in the financial markets pump in the coming eight months is a key driver of oil prices, as traders took positions for the announcement Wednesday and continued to respond to the decision by the week.

The Fed move, called quantitative easing, the dollar weakened, because it would increase the money supply. A weaker U.S. dollar, in turn, lifts the raw material cheaper in foreign currencies.

However, the dollar bounced back some ground Friday. The ICE Dollar Index, which the U.S. dollar against a trade-weighted basket of currencies, rose to 76.519 from 75.882 earlier.

That uptick helped to keep crude?s gains Friday on a short leash, even pushing commodity prices lower briefly during intraday trading, said Peter Donovan, vice president at Vantage Trading in New York.

?It?s hard to keep the momentum week after such a huge, huge move? this week, Donovan said.

The dollar had weakened since late August, when the Fed first chance that it might inject money into the economy for the second fold. On Thursday, the dollar hit a 10-month low against the euro, although the European currency edges higher to $ 1.4048 Friday.

Strengthening global demand for oil is also helping to raise the prices, ?said Costanza Jacazio, an oil analyst at Barclays Capital. She said the investment bank predicted that 2010 would be the second biggest increase in global oil demand in 30 years to see.

?You generally have a healthier economic picture over the world, and you notice that the quantitative easing that helped lift market sentiment,? said Jacazio.

?We see this $ 80-to-$ 90 (crude) range as fundamentally justified,? she said.

Morgan Stanley analyst Hussein Allidina predicted oil prices would average $ 100 per barrel in 2011 in a recent report, saying economic trends are in favor of higher commodity prices.

Front-month December reformulated gasoline or RBOB Blend Stock gained 0.29 cents, or 0.1%, to $ 2.1800 a gallon. December heating oil settled 1.17 cents, or 0.5%, to $ 2.3848 a gallon.

Future Oil Prices Climbed as Dollar Declines in US Stockpiles

Written By mine on Rabu, 20 Oktober 2010 | 09.19

Future Crude oil prices climbed as the dollar tumbled to a 15-year low against the yen and a government report showed a smaller-than-forecast gain in U.S. stockpiles.

Oil increased as much as 2.6 percent as the greenback fell on concern the Federal Reserve?s regional business survey will show a slowing economic recovery. A weaker greenback bolsters the appeal of commodities to investors. An Energy Department report showed that supplies rose 667,000 barrels last week, less than half what was projected in a Bloomberg News survey.

?It?s all the dollar,? said Richard Ilczyszyn, a market strategist at Lind-Waldock, a broker in Chicago. The dollar will probably remain weak until after the Federal Reserve meeting and the congressional elections in November, he said.

Crude oil for November delivery rose $1.75, or 2.2 percent, to $81.24 a barrel at 11:05 a.m. on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Oil traded at $80.18 a barrel before the release of the report at 10:30 a.m. in Washington.

The November contract expires today. More-active December futures increased $1.67, or 2.1 percent, to $81.83.

Brent crude oil for December settlement gained $1.88, or 2.3 percent, to $82.98 a barrel on the London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange.

Futures in New York tumbled 4.3 percent yesterday, the biggest drop since Feb. 4, after an unexpected rate increase by China?s central bank raised speculation that fuel demand might drop in the world?s biggest energy-consuming country.

The Fed is scheduled to release its Beige Book regional business survey at 2 p.m. New York time, two weeks before the central bank?s November meeting.

The Fed?s next meeting is on Nov. 2-3 in Washington. The U.S. congressional elections will occur on Nov. 2.

Cushing Stocks

Total U.S. stockpiles were forecast to increase 1.5 million barrels in the week ended Oct. 15, according to the median of 15 analysts surveyed by Bloomberg News.

Crude oil inventories at Cushing, Oklahoma, the delivery point for New York futures, dropped 1.1 million barrels to 34 million, the biggest one-week decline since January. The decrease left stockpiles at the lowest level since the week ended April 9.

?The market seems to be focusing on the draw in Cushing,? said Tom Bentz, a broker with BNP Paribas Commodity Futures Inc. in New York. ?It?s related to the lag effect from the Enbridge pipeline outage that we had a couple of weeks ago.?

Increasing equities also bolstered the oil market. U.S. stocks rebounded from the biggest drop since August yesterday, as higher-than-estimated results at Boeing Co. and Delta Air Lines Inc. fueled optimism in corporate earnings.

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