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05.32
Global Stock Market Showing Data Commodity Prices Fall
Written By mine on Senin, 26 September 2011 | 05.32
Global stock market showing data of commodity prices fall, the US Federal Reserve warned of significant downside risks to the American economy, sparking a fierce selloff on global markets.
Sugar commodities: sugar prices, which have recently retreated on expectations that the 2011/12 season would see the first major surplus in three years, sharply accelerated losses.
"The macro picture has also caught up with the sugar market and it could be argued that the debt problem in Europe affecting bank capital and potential exposure, and the worsening economic prospects in the US are also a factor," said Sucden brokers analyst Nick Penney.
"All in all, a negative market in a negative economic backdrop. The fall has been swift as speculators and funds go into no risk mode."
By Friday on NYBOT-ICE, the price of unrefined sugar for delivery in March stood at 24.30 US cents a pound compared with 29.06 cents for the October contract a week earlier.
On LIFFE, the price of a tonne of white sugar for December plummeted to ?623.30 from ?708 the previous week.
Coffee commodity: Coffee prices fell further. By Friday on NYBOT-ICE, Arabica for delivery in December dropped to 239 US cents a pound from 262 US cents the previous week.
On LIFFE, Robusta for November declined to $2,019 a tonne from $2,043 a tonne.
Rubber commodity: Rubber prices dropped as traders remained on the sidelines in anticipation of further losses ahead owing to a weak demand outlook.
The Malaysian Rubber Board's benchmark SMR20 slipped to 443.65 US cents a kilo from 462.75 US cents the previous week.
Gold commodity: Gold prices slumped to below $1,700 an ounce, despite the precious metal's status as a safe-haven investment in times of economic turbulence.
Gold had hit a record high of $1,921.15 an ounce on September 6.
London Bullion Market, gold plunged to $1,689 an ounce from $1,794 the previous week.
Silver commodity: Silver dived to $32.90 an ounce from $39.97.
On the London Platinum and Palladium Market, platinum retreated to $1,651 an ounce from $1,798.
Palladium decreased to $659 an ounce from $732.
Oil commodity: World oil prices slumped on fears of a fresh global economic downturn which would slash global demand for energy, with New York crude diving by more than five dollars on Thursday alone.
"Oil prices have been on a very gradual downward trend since April and have been brought down by the continuous poor economic reports, from the US, eurozone and China," said Nick Campbell, an analyst at energy consultancy Inenco.
"This week, the spotlight has been on the US Federal Reserve and the G20 meeting to provide confidence to the market, and there were expectations of further monetary policy from the US and eurozone to boost economic growth.
"Unfortunately the announcements from both parties have had the opposite effect," he added.
The US Federal Reserve on Wednesday unveiled a $400-billion stimulus plan to reduce long-term interest rates but investors chose to focus on its warning about the outlook for the world's biggest economy and oil consumer.
The Fed painted a grim picture of the economy, strapped with slow growth, high unemployment and a depressed housing market.
"There are significant downside risks to the economic outlook, including strains in global financial markets," the central bank said.
The United States has yet to fully recover from the 2009 recession, which was the country's worst since the Great Depression in the 1930s.
By late Friday on London's Intercontinental Exchange, Brent North Sea crude for delivery in November retreated to $104.60 a barrel from $113.43 a week earlier.
On the New York Mercantile Exchange, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) or light sweet crude for November, dropped to $80 a barrel from $88.11.
Copper commodity: Copper prices tumbled to a 13-month low under $8,000 an ounce, extending their run lower since reaching record highs in February, as weaker Chinese manufacturing data added to global demand concerns.
Aluminium, lead, tin and zinc also hit their lowest levels for around a year, while nickel struck a near two-year trough.
On the London Metal Exchange, copper for delivery in three months struck $7,115 a tonne -- the lowest level since August, 2010.
Copper prices have slumped 30 percent since hitting a record-high $10,190 a tonne on February 15, when markets were extremely optimistic about economic recovery.
However in recent months the outlook for growth has turned extremely sour and was further dented on Thursday when data showed that manufacturing activity in commodities-hungry China contracted for a third month running in September.
The HSBC preliminary purchasing managers' index (PMI) fell to a two-month low of 49.4 in September from a final reading of 49.9 in August, the British banking giant said in a statement.
A reading above 50 indicates the sector is expanding, while a reading below 50 suggests contraction.
"On the back of the plentiful bearish news and the further rise of risk aversion, it is not surprising that metal prices have come under strong pressure," Commerzbank analyst Daniel Briesemann said on Thursday.
By late Friday on the London Metal Exchange (LME), copper for delivery in three months dived to $7,488 a tonne from $8,793 the previous week.
Three-month aluminium slid to $2,241 a tonne from $2,381.
Three-month lead dropped to $2,046 a tonne from $2,404.
Three-month tin decreased to $19,700 a tonne from $23,450.
Three-month zinc retreated to $1,968 a tonne from $2,198.
Three-month nickel fell to $18,355 a tonne from $21,700.
Cocoa commodity: Prices hit two-year lows in London, at ?1,745 a tonne.
By Friday on LIFFE, London's futures exchange, cocoa for delivery in December dropped to ?1,760 a tonne from ?1,813 the previous week.
In New York on the NYBOT-ICE, cocoa for December slid to $2,669 a tonne from $2,796.
Sugar commodities: sugar prices, which have recently retreated on expectations that the 2011/12 season would see the first major surplus in three years, sharply accelerated losses.
"The macro picture has also caught up with the sugar market and it could be argued that the debt problem in Europe affecting bank capital and potential exposure, and the worsening economic prospects in the US are also a factor," said Sucden brokers analyst Nick Penney.
"All in all, a negative market in a negative economic backdrop. The fall has been swift as speculators and funds go into no risk mode."
By Friday on NYBOT-ICE, the price of unrefined sugar for delivery in March stood at 24.30 US cents a pound compared with 29.06 cents for the October contract a week earlier.
On LIFFE, the price of a tonne of white sugar for December plummeted to ?623.30 from ?708 the previous week.
Coffee commodity: Coffee prices fell further. By Friday on NYBOT-ICE, Arabica for delivery in December dropped to 239 US cents a pound from 262 US cents the previous week.
On LIFFE, Robusta for November declined to $2,019 a tonne from $2,043 a tonne.
Rubber commodity: Rubber prices dropped as traders remained on the sidelines in anticipation of further losses ahead owing to a weak demand outlook.
The Malaysian Rubber Board's benchmark SMR20 slipped to 443.65 US cents a kilo from 462.75 US cents the previous week.
Gold commodity: Gold prices slumped to below $1,700 an ounce, despite the precious metal's status as a safe-haven investment in times of economic turbulence.
Gold had hit a record high of $1,921.15 an ounce on September 6.
London Bullion Market, gold plunged to $1,689 an ounce from $1,794 the previous week.
Silver commodity: Silver dived to $32.90 an ounce from $39.97.
On the London Platinum and Palladium Market, platinum retreated to $1,651 an ounce from $1,798.
Palladium decreased to $659 an ounce from $732.
Oil commodity: World oil prices slumped on fears of a fresh global economic downturn which would slash global demand for energy, with New York crude diving by more than five dollars on Thursday alone.
"Oil prices have been on a very gradual downward trend since April and have been brought down by the continuous poor economic reports, from the US, eurozone and China," said Nick Campbell, an analyst at energy consultancy Inenco.
"This week, the spotlight has been on the US Federal Reserve and the G20 meeting to provide confidence to the market, and there were expectations of further monetary policy from the US and eurozone to boost economic growth.
"Unfortunately the announcements from both parties have had the opposite effect," he added.
The US Federal Reserve on Wednesday unveiled a $400-billion stimulus plan to reduce long-term interest rates but investors chose to focus on its warning about the outlook for the world's biggest economy and oil consumer.
The Fed painted a grim picture of the economy, strapped with slow growth, high unemployment and a depressed housing market.
"There are significant downside risks to the economic outlook, including strains in global financial markets," the central bank said.
The United States has yet to fully recover from the 2009 recession, which was the country's worst since the Great Depression in the 1930s.
By late Friday on London's Intercontinental Exchange, Brent North Sea crude for delivery in November retreated to $104.60 a barrel from $113.43 a week earlier.
On the New York Mercantile Exchange, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) or light sweet crude for November, dropped to $80 a barrel from $88.11.
Copper commodity: Copper prices tumbled to a 13-month low under $8,000 an ounce, extending their run lower since reaching record highs in February, as weaker Chinese manufacturing data added to global demand concerns.
Aluminium, lead, tin and zinc also hit their lowest levels for around a year, while nickel struck a near two-year trough.
On the London Metal Exchange, copper for delivery in three months struck $7,115 a tonne -- the lowest level since August, 2010.
Copper prices have slumped 30 percent since hitting a record-high $10,190 a tonne on February 15, when markets were extremely optimistic about economic recovery.
However in recent months the outlook for growth has turned extremely sour and was further dented on Thursday when data showed that manufacturing activity in commodities-hungry China contracted for a third month running in September.
The HSBC preliminary purchasing managers' index (PMI) fell to a two-month low of 49.4 in September from a final reading of 49.9 in August, the British banking giant said in a statement.
A reading above 50 indicates the sector is expanding, while a reading below 50 suggests contraction.
"On the back of the plentiful bearish news and the further rise of risk aversion, it is not surprising that metal prices have come under strong pressure," Commerzbank analyst Daniel Briesemann said on Thursday.
By late Friday on the London Metal Exchange (LME), copper for delivery in three months dived to $7,488 a tonne from $8,793 the previous week.
Three-month aluminium slid to $2,241 a tonne from $2,381.
Three-month lead dropped to $2,046 a tonne from $2,404.
Three-month tin decreased to $19,700 a tonne from $23,450.
Three-month zinc retreated to $1,968 a tonne from $2,198.
Three-month nickel fell to $18,355 a tonne from $21,700.
Cocoa commodity: Prices hit two-year lows in London, at ?1,745 a tonne.
By Friday on LIFFE, London's futures exchange, cocoa for delivery in December dropped to ?1,760 a tonne from ?1,813 the previous week.
In New York on the NYBOT-ICE, cocoa for December slid to $2,669 a tonne from $2,796.
18.55
Mining and Commodity Stock Retreat as FTSE 100 heads
Written By mine on Minggu, 12 Juni 2011 | 18.55
Mining and commodity stocks led a retreat across the blue-chip index as experts warned the market could test its 2011 low next week. The FTSE 100 fell 90.54 - or 1.55pc - to 5,765.80, while the wider FTSE 250 (FTSE: ^FTMC - news) market came off 125.60 to 11,786.02 after Chinese trade data showed an unexpected drop in copper imports last month.
The FTSE 100 ended at a new two-and-a-half-month low after it was weighed down by weakness in the heavyweight mining sector following a 3pc decline in copper imports to China. Continued concerns over Greece and eurozone sovereign debt also weighed on trader sentiment. Joshua Raymond, chief market strategist at City Index said.
?A continued bearish move next week could certainly open up a revisit of the 2011 low of just below the 5,600 mark.?
Troubled miner Eurasian Natuaral Resources led yesterday?s retreat, tumbling 60 - or 7.48pc - to 742p on speculation that a third independent director is poised to quit the company?s board amid corporate governance concerns.
Platinum producer Lonmin (Berlin: LRH.BE - news) also fell 84p to ?15.35 after cutting its 2011 production target and warning it will exceed cost guidance. Last month, a strike at its Karee operations prompted the mining company to sack 9,000 workers.
Xstrata (EUREX: XTAF.EX - news) and Rio Tinto (Berlin: CRA1.BE - news) fell 32p to ?13.59 and 95?p to ?41.87 respectively as Australia moved closer to agreeing its controversial new 30pc mining tax. The Australian Treasury forecasts the tax will reap A$7.7bn (?5bn) in its first two years, helping the budget return to surplus by fiscal 2012-13. Elsewhere, Vedanta Resources (EUREX: VR9F.EX - news) also dipped 67p to ?20.49, while Anglo American (Berlin: NGLB.BE - news) fell 97?p to ?29.88? and Kazakhmys (Other OTC: KZMYF.PK - news) 34p to ?12.47.
Away from mining and commodities, AstraZeneca (LSE: AZN.L - news) fell 66?p to ?31.63? after analysts at Barclays Capital cut their rating on the pharmaceutical group from overweight to underweight.
In a wide-ranging sector note, BarCap warned the outlook for the pharmaceutical sector looked ?tough?, a prediction that also sent shares in rival GlaxoSmithKline (Other OTC: GLAXF.PK - news) down 18?p to ?12.76?.
?Relative optimism for the pharma sector has grown as manufacturing output measures have retreated from peaks raising growth concerns and engendering a switch into defensive sectors,? it said. ?The outlook for growth remains weak. Pipeline productivity holds the key to perceptions as late-stage R&D newsflow builds against relatively low expectations.?
Whitbread (Other OTC: WTBCF.PK - news) shares slipped 35p to ?15.10 after the leisure group confirmed it planned to shed around 130 general managers from its Premier Inn budget hotel division. The figure was half the 260 job cuts speculated first thing yesterday. Whitbread said there was no change to its planned expansion of Premier Inn this year.
At the other end of the table, Essar Energy (Dusseldorf: 11224817.DU - news) advanced 6.8 to 426.9p, followed by Associated British Foods (Dusseldorf: 719064.DU - news) , which rose 15p to ?10.43 and Johnson Matthey (LSE: JMAT.L - news) , up 4p to ?19.88.
Shares in ARM Holdings (LSE: ARM.L - news) - the chip designer whose technology is used in many of the world?s smartphones - also gained 1 to 567?p with traders citing a bullish note on the company by Redburn Partners.
Redburn said. ?Despite it being a much-loved share trading on 40 times 2012 PE, ARM is still that most precious of equity opportunities, a genuine growth stock and, unequivocally therefore, a 'buy?.?
Among the mid caps, Hays (LSE: HAS.L - news) rose 3.1 to 108.2p on speculation it was a ?2.2bn takeover target for Swiss rival Adecco (VTX: ADEN.VX - news) .
Adecco, the world?s largest recruitment company, declined to comment on the reports but stressed an interest in pursuing smaller bolt-on deals.
Elsewhere across the FTSE 250, JD sports tumbled a further 74 - 7.88pc - to 933?p. On Thursday, the sports retailer fell 40? following a downbeat trading update where it retained its cautious outlook for the rest of the year.
The FTSE 100 ended at a new two-and-a-half-month low after it was weighed down by weakness in the heavyweight mining sector following a 3pc decline in copper imports to China. Continued concerns over Greece and eurozone sovereign debt also weighed on trader sentiment. Joshua Raymond, chief market strategist at City Index said.
?A continued bearish move next week could certainly open up a revisit of the 2011 low of just below the 5,600 mark.?
Troubled miner Eurasian Natuaral Resources led yesterday?s retreat, tumbling 60 - or 7.48pc - to 742p on speculation that a third independent director is poised to quit the company?s board amid corporate governance concerns.
Platinum producer Lonmin (Berlin: LRH.BE - news) also fell 84p to ?15.35 after cutting its 2011 production target and warning it will exceed cost guidance. Last month, a strike at its Karee operations prompted the mining company to sack 9,000 workers.
Xstrata (EUREX: XTAF.EX - news) and Rio Tinto (Berlin: CRA1.BE - news) fell 32p to ?13.59 and 95?p to ?41.87 respectively as Australia moved closer to agreeing its controversial new 30pc mining tax. The Australian Treasury forecasts the tax will reap A$7.7bn (?5bn) in its first two years, helping the budget return to surplus by fiscal 2012-13. Elsewhere, Vedanta Resources (EUREX: VR9F.EX - news) also dipped 67p to ?20.49, while Anglo American (Berlin: NGLB.BE - news) fell 97?p to ?29.88? and Kazakhmys (Other OTC: KZMYF.PK - news) 34p to ?12.47.
Away from mining and commodities, AstraZeneca (LSE: AZN.L - news) fell 66?p to ?31.63? after analysts at Barclays Capital cut their rating on the pharmaceutical group from overweight to underweight.
In a wide-ranging sector note, BarCap warned the outlook for the pharmaceutical sector looked ?tough?, a prediction that also sent shares in rival GlaxoSmithKline (Other OTC: GLAXF.PK - news) down 18?p to ?12.76?.
?Relative optimism for the pharma sector has grown as manufacturing output measures have retreated from peaks raising growth concerns and engendering a switch into defensive sectors,? it said. ?The outlook for growth remains weak. Pipeline productivity holds the key to perceptions as late-stage R&D newsflow builds against relatively low expectations.?
Whitbread (Other OTC: WTBCF.PK - news) shares slipped 35p to ?15.10 after the leisure group confirmed it planned to shed around 130 general managers from its Premier Inn budget hotel division. The figure was half the 260 job cuts speculated first thing yesterday. Whitbread said there was no change to its planned expansion of Premier Inn this year.
At the other end of the table, Essar Energy (Dusseldorf: 11224817.DU - news) advanced 6.8 to 426.9p, followed by Associated British Foods (Dusseldorf: 719064.DU - news) , which rose 15p to ?10.43 and Johnson Matthey (LSE: JMAT.L - news) , up 4p to ?19.88.
Shares in ARM Holdings (LSE: ARM.L - news) - the chip designer whose technology is used in many of the world?s smartphones - also gained 1 to 567?p with traders citing a bullish note on the company by Redburn Partners.
Redburn said. ?Despite it being a much-loved share trading on 40 times 2012 PE, ARM is still that most precious of equity opportunities, a genuine growth stock and, unequivocally therefore, a 'buy?.?
Among the mid caps, Hays (LSE: HAS.L - news) rose 3.1 to 108.2p on speculation it was a ?2.2bn takeover target for Swiss rival Adecco (VTX: ADEN.VX - news) .
Adecco, the world?s largest recruitment company, declined to comment on the reports but stressed an interest in pursuing smaller bolt-on deals.
Elsewhere across the FTSE 250, JD sports tumbled a further 74 - 7.88pc - to 933?p. On Thursday, the sports retailer fell 40? following a downbeat trading update where it retained its cautious outlook for the rest of the year.
20.10
Case Of Stock Gold Prices Rise 23 percent in 2010
Written By mine on Selasa, 02 November 2010 | 20.10
Gold price is up 23 percent for 2010, compared with a 20% rise in the NYSE Arca Gold Bugs index, which tracks the shares gold commodity producers such as Goldcorp (GG) and Barrick (ABX). Prominent gold fans are saying yes, reasoning that shares of miners haven't kept pace this year with the rise in the price of gold commodity.
But that gap closed this week, thanks to a rally sparked by a shiny earnings report at Goldcorp, the biggest miner of Canadian gold. And while next week's planned launch of QE2 certainly won't tempt anyone to dump their gold holdings, shares of the gold miners may for now be an even better way to hedge against the excesses of reflation-minded central bankers.
"Despite the buzz you've heard about gold and silver commodities over the last two months, the stocks haven't caught up," write Eric Sprott and David Franklin of gold-pushing Sprott Asset Management in Toronto. "We expect that to change over the next two quarters as investors realize how much stronger gold producers' earnings will be at $1,350 gold."
Exhibit A for that case came Thursday, when Goldcorp surged 5% and Barrick rose 3% following the announcement by Vancouver-based Goldcorp that profit quadrupled from a year ago, thanks to cost-cutting and rising gold prices. The firm said its cash profit margin surged to a record $979 an ounce in the third quarter, prompting it to double its dividend payout.
The strong results produced by Goldcorp suggest to gold bulls that the shares of gold miners? and exchange-traded funds that track various baskets of those securities could be the best way to benefit from the next dozen-odd rounds of currency devaluation. The Federal Reserve is expected to announce next Wednesday that it is preparing for another round of large scale asset purchases, and the Bank of Japan said Thursday it would move up its own meeting, presumably to announce actions that might ease upward pressure on the yen.
Sprott points to the lagging prices of the Market Vectors Gold Miners (GDX) exchange-traded fund and the Gold Bugs -- which, by the way, stands for "basket of unhedged gold stocks." Both track the performances of big miners -- a group whose gains seem likely only to expand as long as the commodity gold price stays where it is, let alone post a further rise.
"These are companies that can process an ounce of gold for $800 and sell it for $1,300, with virtually no sales risk," Sprott and Franklin write. "What other investment sector can boast that kind of margin in this environment?"
Yet as appealing as plunking down a few bucks for a gold ETF might seem, not everyone sees this as the way to play the gold craze. Tom Winmill, who manages the $118 million Midas (MIDSX) fund, says the index-minded strategy underlying most ETF investments "was totally discredited during the 2008 bust," because the diversification such approaches supposedly achieve proved worthless in a major crisis.
He says investors should focus on individual companies with strong resource bases and quality management teams, just as he does at Midas. The fund has returned 144% since Halloween of 2008, he says, compared with a 79% gain for the SPDR Gold Trust (GLD), which tracks the spot gold price. Its top holdings include Australia's Newcrest Mining (NCMGY) and Barrick.
That said, just about everyone agrees higher gold prices, should they be here to stay, will line the pockets of the better miners' shareholders. The Midas fund's recent gains, Winmill says in accord with Sprott, "may reflect only the operating leverage of the miners to the rise in the gold price" -- which is to say, the shares are rising because the profits are getting bigger.
Characteristically, Sprott -- who was warning last year that the United States is a "Ponzi scheme," beating Pimco's Bill Gross to that punch by 10 months -- says that trend is only getting started.
"If you haven't participated in gold's recent rise, don't fret, because the fun has only just begun," Sprott and Franklin write. "At $1,300 gold, these companies literally have a license to print money."
But that gap closed this week, thanks to a rally sparked by a shiny earnings report at Goldcorp, the biggest miner of Canadian gold. And while next week's planned launch of QE2 certainly won't tempt anyone to dump their gold holdings, shares of the gold miners may for now be an even better way to hedge against the excesses of reflation-minded central bankers.
"Despite the buzz you've heard about gold and silver commodities over the last two months, the stocks haven't caught up," write Eric Sprott and David Franklin of gold-pushing Sprott Asset Management in Toronto. "We expect that to change over the next two quarters as investors realize how much stronger gold producers' earnings will be at $1,350 gold."
Exhibit A for that case came Thursday, when Goldcorp surged 5% and Barrick rose 3% following the announcement by Vancouver-based Goldcorp that profit quadrupled from a year ago, thanks to cost-cutting and rising gold prices. The firm said its cash profit margin surged to a record $979 an ounce in the third quarter, prompting it to double its dividend payout.
The strong results produced by Goldcorp suggest to gold bulls that the shares of gold miners? and exchange-traded funds that track various baskets of those securities could be the best way to benefit from the next dozen-odd rounds of currency devaluation. The Federal Reserve is expected to announce next Wednesday that it is preparing for another round of large scale asset purchases, and the Bank of Japan said Thursday it would move up its own meeting, presumably to announce actions that might ease upward pressure on the yen.
Sprott points to the lagging prices of the Market Vectors Gold Miners (GDX) exchange-traded fund and the Gold Bugs -- which, by the way, stands for "basket of unhedged gold stocks." Both track the performances of big miners -- a group whose gains seem likely only to expand as long as the commodity gold price stays where it is, let alone post a further rise.
"These are companies that can process an ounce of gold for $800 and sell it for $1,300, with virtually no sales risk," Sprott and Franklin write. "What other investment sector can boast that kind of margin in this environment?"
Yet as appealing as plunking down a few bucks for a gold ETF might seem, not everyone sees this as the way to play the gold craze. Tom Winmill, who manages the $118 million Midas (MIDSX) fund, says the index-minded strategy underlying most ETF investments "was totally discredited during the 2008 bust," because the diversification such approaches supposedly achieve proved worthless in a major crisis.
He says investors should focus on individual companies with strong resource bases and quality management teams, just as he does at Midas. The fund has returned 144% since Halloween of 2008, he says, compared with a 79% gain for the SPDR Gold Trust (GLD), which tracks the spot gold price. Its top holdings include Australia's Newcrest Mining (NCMGY) and Barrick.
That said, just about everyone agrees higher gold prices, should they be here to stay, will line the pockets of the better miners' shareholders. The Midas fund's recent gains, Winmill says in accord with Sprott, "may reflect only the operating leverage of the miners to the rise in the gold price" -- which is to say, the shares are rising because the profits are getting bigger.
Characteristically, Sprott -- who was warning last year that the United States is a "Ponzi scheme," beating Pimco's Bill Gross to that punch by 10 months -- says that trend is only getting started.
"If you haven't participated in gold's recent rise, don't fret, because the fun has only just begun," Sprott and Franklin write. "At $1,300 gold, these companies literally have a license to print money."
