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Global Stock Market Showing Data Commodity Prices Fall

Written By mine on Senin, 26 September 2011 | 05.32

Global stock market showing data of commodity prices fall, the US Federal Reserve warned of significant downside risks to the American economy, sparking a fierce selloff on global markets.

Sugar commodities: sugar prices, which have recently retreated on expectations that the 2011/12 season would see the first major surplus in three years, sharply accelerated losses.

"The macro picture has also caught up with the sugar market and it could be argued that the debt problem in Europe affecting bank capital and potential exposure, and the worsening economic prospects in the US are also a factor," said Sucden brokers analyst Nick Penney.

"All in all, a negative market in a negative economic backdrop. The fall has been swift as speculators and funds go into no risk mode."

By Friday on NYBOT-ICE, the price of unrefined sugar for delivery in March stood at 24.30 US cents a pound compared with 29.06 cents for the October contract a week earlier.

On LIFFE, the price of a tonne of white sugar for December plummeted to ?623.30 from ?708 the previous week.

Coffee commodity: Coffee prices fell further. By Friday on NYBOT-ICE, Arabica for delivery in December dropped to 239 US cents a pound from 262 US cents the previous week.

On LIFFE, Robusta for November declined to $2,019 a tonne from $2,043 a tonne.

Rubber commodity: Rubber prices dropped as traders remained on the sidelines in anticipation of further losses ahead owing to a weak demand outlook.

The Malaysian Rubber Board's benchmark SMR20 slipped to 443.65 US cents a kilo from 462.75 US cents the previous week.

Gold commodity: Gold prices slumped to below $1,700 an ounce, despite the precious metal's status as a safe-haven investment in times of economic turbulence.

Gold had hit a record high of $1,921.15 an ounce on September 6.

London Bullion Market, gold plunged to $1,689 an ounce from $1,794 the previous week.

Silver commodity: Silver dived to $32.90 an ounce from $39.97.

On the London Platinum and Palladium Market, platinum retreated to $1,651 an ounce from $1,798.

Palladium decreased to $659 an ounce from $732.

Oil commodity: World oil prices slumped on fears of a fresh global economic downturn which would slash global demand for energy, with New York crude diving by more than five dollars on Thursday alone.

"Oil prices have been on a very gradual downward trend since April and have been brought down by the continuous poor economic reports, from the US, eurozone and China," said Nick Campbell, an analyst at energy consultancy Inenco.

"This week, the spotlight has been on the US Federal Reserve and the G20 meeting to provide confidence to the market, and there were expectations of further monetary policy from the US and eurozone to boost economic growth.

"Unfortunately the announcements from both parties have had the opposite effect," he added.

The US Federal Reserve on Wednesday unveiled a $400-billion stimulus plan to reduce long-term interest rates but investors chose to focus on its warning about the outlook for the world's biggest economy and oil consumer.

The Fed painted a grim picture of the economy, strapped with slow growth, high unemployment and a depressed housing market.

"There are significant downside risks to the economic outlook, including strains in global financial markets," the central bank said.

The United States has yet to fully recover from the 2009 recession, which was the country's worst since the Great Depression in the 1930s.

By late Friday on London's Intercontinental Exchange, Brent North Sea crude for delivery in November retreated to $104.60 a barrel from $113.43 a week earlier.

On the New York Mercantile Exchange, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) or light sweet crude for November, dropped to $80 a barrel from $88.11.

Copper commodity: Copper prices tumbled to a 13-month low under $8,000 an ounce, extending their run lower since reaching record highs in February, as weaker Chinese manufacturing data added to global demand concerns.

Aluminium, lead, tin and zinc also hit their lowest levels for around a year, while nickel struck a near two-year trough.

On the London Metal Exchange, copper for delivery in three months struck $7,115 a tonne -- the lowest level since August, 2010.

Copper prices have slumped 30 percent since hitting a record-high $10,190 a tonne on February 15, when markets were extremely optimistic about economic recovery.

However in recent months the outlook for growth has turned extremely sour and was further dented on Thursday when data showed that manufacturing activity in commodities-hungry China contracted for a third month running in September.

The HSBC preliminary purchasing managers' index (PMI) fell to a two-month low of 49.4 in September from a final reading of 49.9 in August, the British banking giant said in a statement.

A reading above 50 indicates the sector is expanding, while a reading below 50 suggests contraction.

"On the back of the plentiful bearish news and the further rise of risk aversion, it is not surprising that metal prices have come under strong pressure," Commerzbank analyst Daniel Briesemann said on Thursday.

By late Friday on the London Metal Exchange (LME), copper for delivery in three months dived to $7,488 a tonne from $8,793 the previous week.

Three-month aluminium slid to $2,241 a tonne from $2,381.

Three-month lead dropped to $2,046 a tonne from $2,404.

Three-month tin decreased to $19,700 a tonne from $23,450.

Three-month zinc retreated to $1,968 a tonne from $2,198.

Three-month nickel fell to $18,355 a tonne from $21,700.

Cocoa commodity: Prices hit two-year lows in London, at ?1,745 a tonne.

By Friday on LIFFE, London's futures exchange, cocoa for delivery in December dropped to ?1,760 a tonne from ?1,813 the previous week.

In New York on the NYBOT-ICE, cocoa for December slid to $2,669 a tonne from $2,796.

Commodities outlook bullish Until 2011

Written By mine on Sabtu, 01 Januari 2011 | 14.03

Commodities are set to stay bullish at least until the first half of 2011, thanks to the continued strength of major global commodities, particularly gold and crude oil, which have shown few signs of losing steam.

As at press time, gold surged close to its all-time high of US$1,424.60 per ounce recorded in November as investors swarmed for gold as a safe alternative to paper currencies following a disappointing US November jobs report which triggered concerns over the strength of the US economic recovery.

The price of crude oil, which of late has been a crucial price determinant for Malaysia's crude palm oil (CPO) and rubber grades like SMR 20 and Latex-in-Bulk, had also crossed the US$91-a-barrel mark as at press time with analysts predicting the price would touch US$100 a barrel or more by the year-end.

JP Morgan, in its latest oil price forecast, expected the North Sea Brent to hit US$100 by the first half of 2011 and US$120 a barrel before the end of 2012 as consumption grows in emerging economies and the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (Opec) seen unlikely to increase production in the first half of 2011.

On the local front, international palm oil experts and analysts are generally positive on the price of CPO.

Factors that will support the CPO price rally are rising global demand over tight supplies which are affected by drought and unusually heavy rain caused by La Nina, said Dorab Mistry of Godrej International Ltd at a palm oil conference in Bali recently.

The La Nina could curb palm oil production in Malaysia, Indonesia and also affect soybean production in South America. China and India are expected to remain as the top importers of palm oil next year.

LMC International managing director Dr James Fry, meanwhile, expects CPO prices to slump to RM2,600 per tonne by June as ?higher palm oil and soybean oil prices will cause biodiesel users to defer purchases to the second half of 2011.? OSK Research has raised its 2011 target for average CPO price to RM2,700 from RM2,250 a tonne to reflect the continued strength of crude oil.

As at press time on Dec 3, CPO futures had rallied by 32% this year to above RM3,500 a tonne - the highest since July 2008 and could hit RM3,600 a tonne before the year-end.

CPO reached an all-time high of RM4,486 per tonne in May 2008.

Rubber grades SMR 20 and Latex-in-Bulk prices would also find comfort zones in 2011, given rising global consumption amid tight supply situation.

Major rubber producing areas in southern Thailand and northern Malaysia were badly affected by flash floods in November.

Global consumption of natural rubber will also outpace supply by 313,000 tonnes in 2011, the most since 2006, according to a Goldman Sachs Group Inc forecast in a November report.

The Association of Natural Rubber Producing Countries (ANRPC) senior analyst Jom Jacob expects the production of member countries to hit 9.9 million tonnes in 2011, up 4.3% from 2010. The ANRPC accounts for over 90% of the world's rubber production.

As at press time, SMR 20 had set a new record at RM1,340 per tonne while Latex-in-Bulk jumped to RM910 per tonne. As for tin, it will share the same bullish outlook for 2011, according to Malaysian Smelting Corp Bhd group chief executive officer Datuk Seri Ajib Anuar.

While there is some scope for tin production to rise in response to high prices, it will be limited.

?Lack of exploration and investment in the past as well as long lead time to start a new mine will continue to delay new project start-ups,? says Ajib.

Many of the new projects under exploration and developments will unlikely go into operation before 2013.

?We expect the market to remain in deficit in 2011 and 2012. Tin demand is expected to remain stable, growing at a forecast rate of about 3% to 4% over the next two years,? he says.

In 2010, world tin prices rebounded strongly, rising 59% to US$19,836 per tonne from an average US$12,493 per tonne over the course of the year to November, peaking at a record level of US$26,977 per tonne in October.

After reaching a six-year high of almost 28,000 tonnes as at end-January 2010, the London Metal Exchange recorded a 44% fall in tin production to about 15,000 tonnes in December.

World tin demand is expected to have risen by about 15% to 342,000 tonnes in 2010.

?Nearly all recent growth in tin usage has been driven by the expansion of the electronics industry in Asia,? Ajib says.

Meanwhile, cocoa, Malaysia's best kept secret commodity, will likely remain stable in 2011, according to Malaysian Cocoa Board (MCB) director-general Datuk Dr Azhar Ismail. Given the higher cocoa prices, Malaysia's export earnings from cocoa products could conservatively surpass RM3.5bil in 2010 from RM3.2bil in 2009.

?Cocoa dried beans in Ranau (Sabah) and Raub (Pahang) are currently fetching about RM8,700 per tonne, which can be considered very good price for cocoa smallholders,? says Azhar.

He also expects cocoa prices to stabilise at current levels in 2011. ?With the world cocoa price set to sustain at current remunerative level, cocoa farmers are expected to get comparatively good margins,? he says.

While Malaysia does not export cocoa beans, its end-products like cocoa butter, cocoa powder, hand-made chocolates are fetching good prices in the international markets.

As for MCB, Azhar says the board will undertake more R&D work this year in terms of producing more new clones and higher yielding planting materials.

Global Commodity Prices on Dollar Rising

Written By mine on Rabu, 08 Desember 2010 | 23.24

Stocks on Wall Street are fluctuating between gains and losses as the rising US dollar pushes down commodity prices. Hong Kong stocks advanced for the first time in three days as shares of raw material producers rose after commodity prices increased yesterday and gold climbed to a record.




In early afternoon trading, the Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 6 points to 11,353 after being in positive territory late in the morning session.




The S&P 500 index is holding up better, having gained 0.1% to 1225 while the Nasdaq Composite is up 0.2% at 2603.




The dollar's gain sent commodity prices lower, hitting the stocks of materials, energy and industrial companies. Dow components DuPont fell 1.2% while Caterpillar shed 0.8%.




McDonald's fell 2% after reporting same-store sales rose 4.8% in November, driven by its McRib sandwich, but fell short of analysts' estimates.




Other markets: Europe mixed, Asia down




European stocks were mixed with most markets finishing off their lows, helped by some encouraging economic news and speculation about mergers and acquisitions.




The Stoxx Europe 600 index finished 0.4% higher at 274.98. The UK's FTSE 100 was down 0.2% to 5794.53, Germany's DAX was down 0.4% at 6975.87 and the French CAC-40 index was 0.6% higher at 3831.98.




Asian stocks ended mostly lower, with Chinese and Hong Kong shares falling on worries an interest-rate increase could be coming over the weekend after Beijing advanced the release of monthly inflation data to Saturday.




Korean stocks were hurt by renewed geopolitical tensions, while Japanese shares advanced as exporters drew support from a weakened yen.




The Nikkei Stock Average climbed 0.9% to 10232.33 for its highest finish since June 21. But most other major benchmarks ended lower, with Australia's S&P/ASX 200 dropping 0.6% to 4699.92, Korea's Kospi falling 0.4% to 1955.72 and India's Sensex declining 1.2% to 19696.48.




The Shanghai Composite dropped 1% to 2848.55 and Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index fell 1.4% to 23092.52.




Commodities: Oil, gold down




Oil prices tumbled after a government report showed a sharp increase in US fuel inventories.




Light, sweet crude for January delivery gave up $US1.25, or 1.4%, to $US87.45 a barrel in New York. Brent crude on the ICE futures exchange lost $US1.15, or 1.3%, at $US90.24 a barrel.




Gold futures fell below $US1400 as rising US Treasury yields made the metal a less attractive investment.




The most actively traded gold futures contract, for February delivery, was down $US15.70, or 1.1%, at $US1393.30 an ounce in New York.




Currencies: Dollar up, euro down




The US dollar rose for a third day against a basket of major rivals after a tentative deal on taxes pushed Treasury bond yields higher.




The dollar rose to ?84.26, up from ?83.51 on Tuesday. The euro fell to $US1.3225 from $1.3259.




The UK pound gained 0.1% to $US1.5775.




Cnooc Ltd., China?s biggest offshore oil producer, rose 1.1 percent. Zijin Mining Group Co., China?s largest gold producer, advanced 4.1 percent. Xinjiang Goldwind Science & Technology Co., a China-based maker of wind turbines, surged 7.6 percent after winning 5.7 billion yuan ($857.5 million) of supply contracts in China. Foxconn International Holdings Ltd., the world?s No. 1 contract maker of mobile phones, climbed 3 percent after President Barack Obama said he?ll agree to Bush-era tax cuts.




?Obama extending tax cuts should help support the economic recovery,? said Terrace Chum, who helps manage about $6 billion at MFC Global Investment Management in Hong Kong. ?Investors are still mindful of policy tightening for China. That will set the tone for the market.?




Hong Kong?s Hang Seng Index climbed 0.8 percent to 23,428.15 as of the 4 p.m. local time close, erasing losses of as much as 0.6 percent earlier. The Hang Seng China Enterprises Index of so-called H shares of Chinese companies rose 0.9 percent to 12,922.24.




The Hang Seng Index has increased 7.1 percent this year, on expectations that growth in corporate earnings will overcome concerns about the pace of the U.S. economic recovery and China?s steps to curb rising property prices. Shares in the gauge trade at an average 14.7 times estimated earnings, compared with about 17.2 times at the start of the year.




Shares of raw material producers advanced after crude oil for January delivery rose 0.2 percent to settle at $89.38 a barrel in New York yesterday on speculation the U.S. may extend stimulus measures, bolstering fuel demand in the world?s largest oil-consuming country. Copper futures climbed 0.5 percent in London yesterday, while gold rose to an all-time high of $1,427.55 an ounce in New York.




Cnooc increased 1.1 percent to HK$18.36. Jiangxi Copper Co., China?s biggest producer of the metal increased 2.4 percent to HK$25.25. Zijin Mining jumped 4.1 percent to HK$7.59. Real Gold Mining Ltd. gained 2.2 percent to HK$14.94.




Xinjiang Goldwind surged 7.6 percent to HK$18.34. The company said it won contracts valued at 920.1 million yuan to supply wind-turbine electricity generators to China Three Gorges New Energy Corp. That?s in addition to contracts worth 4.77 billion yuan for eight other wind-turbine projects in China.




Exporters advanced after Obama said he would accept a lower rate for the estate tax than Democrats wanted in order to break a stalemate over extending the George W. Bush administration?s tax cuts before Congress adjourns. The current tax rates, enacted in 2001 and 2003, are set to expire Dec. 31. ?This compromise is an essential step on the road to recovery,? Obama said.




Foxconn increased 3 percent to HK$5.77. Cosco Pacific Ltd., Asia?s third-largest container-terminal operator, jumped 3.9 percent to HK$13.30.




?Valuations have become attractive following the decline in November,? said Castor Pang, Hong Kong-based research director at Cinda International Holdings Ltd. ?Prospects of further quantitative easing in the U.S. and tax cuts in the U.S. are positive for Hong Kong stocks.?




Tsingtao Brewery Co., the Chinese beer company founded by German settlers more than a century ago, advanced 5 percent to HK$42.95. The company said it will acquire Shandong Xin Immense Brewery Co. for 1.87 billion yuan.




Hong Kong Rents




Commercial property landlords in Hong Kong gained amid prospects of rising rents in the Chinese city. Prime office rents will rise as much as 35 percent in 2011 because of increased demand and limited supply, Gavin Morgan, head of markets at Jones Lang LaSalle Inc. said at a media briefing today.




Wharf (Holdings) Ltd., the owner of Times Square and Harbour City shopping malls and office complexes in the city, surged 5.8 percent to HK$58. Sun Hung Kai Properties Ltd., the world?s biggest developer by market value, gained 1.5 percent to HK$131.50.




Three stocks advanced for each that fell in the 45-company Hang Seng Index. Futures on the gauge climbed 1.2 percent to 23,459.

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